Granados José A Tapia
University of Michigan School of Social Work and Institute of Labor & Industrial Relations, 1111 East Catherine Street, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-0913, USA.
Demography. 2008 May;45(2):323-43. doi: 10.1353/dem.0.0008.
Recent research has shown that after long-term declining trends are excluded, mortality rates in industrial countries tend to rise in economic expansions and fall in economic recessions. In the present work, co-movements between economic fluctuations and mortality changes in postwar Japan are investigated by analyzing time series of mortality rates and eight economic indicators. To eliminate spurious associations attributable to trends, series are detrended either via Hodrick-Prescott filtering or through differencing. As previously found in other industrial economies, general mortality and age-specific death rates in Japan tend to increase in expansions and drop in recessions, for both males and females. The effect, which is slightly stronger for males, is particularly noticeable in those aged 45-64. Deaths attributed to heart disease, pneumonia, accidents, liver disease, and senility--making up about 41% of total mortality--tend to fluctuate procyclically, increasing in expansions. Suicides, as well as deaths attributable to diabetes and hypertensive disease, make up about 4% of total mortality and fluctuate countercyclically, increasing in recessions. Deaths attributed to other causes, making up about half of total deaths, don't show a clearly defined relationship with the fluctuations of the economy.
近期研究表明，排除长期下降趋势后，工业化国家的死亡率往往在经济扩张期上升，在经济衰退期下降。在本研究中，通过分析死亡率时间序列和八个经济指标，对日本战后经济波动与死亡率变化之间的共同变动关系进行了调查。为消除趋势导致的虚假关联，数据序列通过霍德里克 - 普雷斯科特滤波或差分进行去趋势处理。正如先前在其他工业经济体中所发现的那样，日本的总体死亡率和特定年龄段死亡率在经济扩张期往往上升，在经济衰退期下降，男性和女性皆是如此。这种影响对男性略强，在45 - 64岁人群中尤为明显。归因于心脏病、肺炎、事故、肝病和衰老的死亡人数约占总死亡人数的41%，往往呈现顺周期波动，在经济扩张期增加。自杀以及归因于糖尿病和高血压疾病的死亡人数约占总死亡人数的4%，呈现逆周期波动，在经济衰退期增加。归因于其他原因的死亡人数约占总死亡人数的一半，与经济波动没有明确的关系。
