Business School, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin, China.
School of Economics and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
Front Public Health. 2021 Jun 7;9:689870. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.689870. eCollection 2021.
China is an emerging country, and government intervention is always considered as an important part of the solutions when people facing challenges in China. Under the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic and the global economic downturn, the Chinese government quickly brought the epidemic under control and restored the positive economic growth through strong intervention. Based on the panel data of provincial level in China and the government intervention as the threshold variable, this paper empirically analyzed the non-linear effect of business cycle on population health by using the panel threshold regression model. The empirical results show that the impact of the business cycle on population health is significantly negative, and government intervention has a single threshold effect on the relationship between business cycle and population health. When the government intervention is below the threshold value, the business cycle has a significant negative effect on the improvement of the population health level; when the level of government intervention exceeds the threshold value, the relationship between business cycle and population health becomes significantly positive. To some extent, the conclusions of this paper can guide the formulation and revision of government health policy and help to adjust the direction and intensity of government intervention. The Chinese government and other governments of emerging countries should do more to harness the power of state intervention in their response to the business cycle.
中国是一个新兴国家，在人们面临挑战时，政府干预一直被视为解决方案的重要组成部分。在 2019 年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）疫情和全球经济衰退的冲击下，中国政府通过强有力的干预措施迅速控制了疫情，并恢复了积极的经济增长。本文基于中国省级面板数据和政府干预作为门槛变量，采用面板门槛回归模型实证分析了商业周期对人口健康的非线性影响。实证结果表明，商业周期对人口健康的影响显著为负，政府干预对商业周期与人口健康之间的关系具有单一的门槛效应。当政府干预低于门槛值时，商业周期对人口健康水平的提高有显著的负向影响；当政府干预水平超过门槛值时，商业周期与人口健康之间的关系变为显著正向。在一定程度上，本文的结论可以为政府卫生政策的制定和修订提供指导，有助于调整政府干预的方向和力度。中国政府和其他新兴国家的政府应该在应对商业周期时更多地利用国家干预的力量。
