Pfeffer W T, Harper J T, O'Neel S
Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA.
Science. 2008 Sep 5;321(5894):1340-3. doi: 10.1126/science.1159099.
On the basis of climate modeling and analogies with past conditions, the potential for multimeter increases in sea level by the end of the 21st century has been proposed. We consider glaciological conditions required for large sea-level rise to occur by 2100 and conclude that increases in excess of 2 meters are physically untenable. We find that a total sea-level rise of about 2 meters by 2100 could occur under physically possible glaciological conditions but only if all variables are quickly accelerated to extremely high limits. More plausible but still accelerated conditions lead to total sea-level rise by 2100 of about 0.8 meter. These roughly constrained scenarios provide a "most likely" starting point for refinements in sea-level forecasts that include ice flow dynamics.
基于气候模型以及与过去状况的类比，有人提出到21世纪末海平面有可能上升数米。我们考虑了到2100年发生大幅海平面上升所需的冰川学条件，并得出结论，超过2米的上升在物理上是站不住脚的。我们发现，在物理上可能的冰川学条件下，到2100年海平面总共可能上升约2米，但前提是所有变量都迅速加速到极高的极限。更合理但仍处于加速状态的条件会导致到2100年海平面总共上升约0.8米。这些大致受限的情景为包含冰流动力学的海平面预测细化提供了一个“最有可能”的起点。
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