Boni Maciej F, Smith David L, Laxminarayan Ramanan
Resources for the Future, Washington, DC 20036, USA.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2008 Sep 16;105(37):14216-21. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0804628105. Epub 2008 Sep 9.
Despite the availability of many drugs and therapies to treat malaria, many countries' national policies recommend using a single first-line therapy for most clinical malaria cases. To assess whether this is the best strategy for the population as a whole, we designed an evolutionary-epidemiological modeling framework for malaria and compared the benefits of different treatment strategies in the context of resistance evolution. Our results show that the population-wide use of multiple first-line therapies (MFT) against malaria yields a better clinical outcome than using a single therapy or a cycling strategy where therapies are rotated, either on a fixed cycling schedule or when resistance levels or treatment failure become too high. MFT strategies also delay the emergence and slow the fixation of resistant strains (phenotypes), and they allow a larger fraction of the population to be treated without trading off future treatment of cases that may be untreatable because of high resistance levels. Earlier papers have noted that cycling strategies have the disadvantage of creating a less temporally variable environment than MFT strategies, making resistance evolution easier for the parasite. Here, we illustrate a second feature of parasite ecology that impairs the performance of cycling policies, namely, that cycling policies degrade the mean fitness of the parasite population more quickly than MFT policies, making it easier for new resistant types to invade and spread. The clinical benefits of using multiple first-line therapies against malaria suggest that MFT policies should play a key role in malaria elimination and control programs.
尽管有许多药物和疗法可用于治疗疟疾,但许多国家的国家政策建议对大多数临床疟疾病例采用单一的一线治疗方法。为了评估这是否是对全体人群而言的最佳策略,我们设计了一个疟疾的进化流行病学建模框架,并在抗药性进化的背景下比较了不同治疗策略的益处。我们的结果表明,在人群中广泛使用多种一线疗法(MFT)治疗疟疾比使用单一疗法或轮换策略(无论是按照固定的轮换时间表,还是在抗药性水平或治疗失败率过高时进行轮换)能产生更好的临床效果。MFT策略还能延迟抗药菌株(表型)的出现并减缓其固定,并且能让更大比例的人群得到治疗,同时不会牺牲对因高抗药性水平而可能无法治疗的病例的未来治疗。早期的论文指出,轮换策略的缺点是与MFT策略相比,其创造的时间变化环境较小,这使得寄生虫的抗药性进化更容易。在这里,我们阐述了寄生虫生态学的另一个特征,即轮换策略比MFT策略更快地降低寄生虫种群的平均适合度,这使得新的抗药类型更容易入侵和传播,从而削弱了轮换策略的效果。使用多种一线疗法治疗疟疾的临床益处表明,MFT策略应在疟疾消除和控制计划中发挥关键作用。