Cohen Justin M, Singh Inder, O'Brien Megan E
Clinton Foundation HIV/AIDS Initiative, Center for Strategic HIV Operations Research, 383 Dorchester Avenue, Suite 400, Boston, MA 02127, USA.
Malar J. 2008 Oct 2;7:200. doi: 10.1186/1475-2875-7-200.
An accurate forecast of global demand is essential to stabilize the market for artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) and to ensure access to high-quality, life-saving medications at the lowest sustainable prices by avoiding underproduction and excessive overproduction, each of which can have negative consequences for the availability of affordable drugs. A robust forecast requires an understanding of the resources available to support procurement of these relatively expensive antimalarials, in particular from the Global Fund, at present the single largest source of ACT funding.
Predictive regression models estimating the timing and rate of disbursements from the Global Fund to recipient countries for each malaria grant were derived using a repeated split-sample procedure intended to avoid over-fitting. Predictions were compared against actual disbursements in a group of validation grants, and forecasts of ACT procurement extrapolated from disbursement predictions were evaluated against actual procurement in two sub-Saharan countries.
Quarterly forecasts were correlated highly with actual smoothed disbursement rates (r = 0.987, p < 0.0001). Additionally, predicted ACT procurement, extrapolated from forecasted disbursements, was correlated strongly with actual ACT procurement supported by two grants from the Global Fund's first (r = 0.945, p < 0.0001) and fourth (r = 0.938, p < 0.0001) funding rounds.
This analysis derived predictive regression models that successfully forecasted disbursement patterning for individual Global Fund malaria grants. These results indicate the utility of this approach for demand forecasting of ACT and, potentially, for other commodities procured using funding from the Global Fund. Further validation using data from other countries in different regions and environments will be necessary to confirm its generalizability.
准确预测全球需求对于稳定以青蒿素为基础的联合疗法（ACT）市场以及确保以最低可持续价格获取高质量的救命药物至关重要，避免生产不足和过度生产，因为这两者都会对可负担药物的供应产生负面影响。可靠的预测需要了解可用于采购这些相对昂贵抗疟药物的资源，特别是来自全球基金的资源，目前全球基金是ACT资金的最大单一来源。
使用重复的拆分样本程序推导预测回归模型，以估计全球基金向每个疟疾赠款受援国的付款时间和速率，旨在避免过度拟合。将预测结果与一组验证赠款中的实际付款进行比较，并将从付款预测推断出的ACT采购预测与撒哈拉以南两个国家的实际采购进行评估。
季度预测与实际平滑付款率高度相关（r = 0.987，p < 0.0001）。此外，从预测付款推断出的预测ACT采购与全球基金第一轮（r = 0.945，p < 0.0001）和第四轮（r = 0.938，p < 0.0001）资助的两项赠款支持的实际ACT采购密切相关。
该分析得出了预测回归模型，成功预测了全球基金单个疟疾赠款的付款模式。这些结果表明这种方法对ACT需求预测以及可能对使用全球基金资金采购的其他商品的需求预测有用。需要使用不同地区和环境中其他国家的数据进行进一步验证，以确认其普遍性。
