Centre for Health Economics Research and Modeling Infectious Diseases, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Institute, Faculty of Medicine, University of Antwerp, Campus Drie Eiken, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 Antwerpen, Belgium.
Math Biosci. 2009 Apr;218(2):80-7. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2008.12.009. Epub 2009 Jan 12.
With the aim to improve dynamic models for infections transmitted predominantly through non-sexual social contacts, we compared three popular model estimation methods in how well they fitted seroprevalence data and produced estimates for the basic reproduction number R(0) and the effective vaccination level required for elimination of varicella. For two of these methods, interactions between age groups were parameterized using empirical social contact data whereas for the third method we used the current standard approach of imposing a simplifying structure on the 'Who Acquires Infection From Whom' (WAIFW) matrix. The first method was based on solving a set of differential equations to obtain an equilibrium value of the proportion of susceptibles. The second method was based on finding a solution for the age-specific force of infection using the formula of the mass action principle by means of iteration. Both solutions were contrasted with observed age-specific seroprevalence data. The best fit of the WAIFW matrix was obtained with contacts involving touching, and lasting longer than 15min per day. Plausible values for R(0) for varicella in Belgium ranged from 7.66 to 13.44. Both approaches based on empirical social contact data provided a better fit to seroprevalence data than the current standard approach.
为了改进主要通过非性接触社会接触传播的感染的动力学模型，我们比较了三种流行的模型估计方法，以了解它们在拟合血清流行率数据以及产生水痘基本繁殖数 R(0)和消除水痘所需的有效疫苗接种水平方面的表现。对于其中两种方法，使用经验性社会接触数据对年龄组之间的相互作用进行了参数化，而对于第三种方法，我们使用了在“谁从谁那里获得感染”（WAIFW）矩阵上施加简化结构的当前标准方法。第一种方法基于求解一组微分方程以获得易感人群比例的平衡值。第二种方法基于使用质量作用原理的公式通过迭代找到特定年龄的感染力的解。这两种解决方案都与观察到的特定年龄的血清流行率数据进行了对比。与每天接触超过 15 分钟的触摸接触相比，WAIFW 矩阵的最佳拟合是通过接触获得的。比利时水痘的 R(0)的合理值范围为 7.66 至 13.44。基于经验性社会接触数据的两种方法都比当前标准方法更能拟合血清流行率数据。
