Zaba B, Isingo R, Wringe A, Marston M, Slaymaker E, Urassa M
TAZAMA Project, National Institute for Medical Research, Mwanza, Tanzania.
Sex Transm Infect. 2009 Apr;85 Suppl 1(Suppl_1):i20-6. doi: 10.1136/sti.2008.033704.
To evaluate quality of sexual debut and first marriage data, measure trends and study the association of risky sexual behaviour in youth with adult risk behaviour.
Reports on age at first sex (AFS) and age at first marriage (AFM) from the Kisesa cohort study, 1994-2004, were evaluated for consistency and used to describe trends in median age-at-event and time spent single but sexually active in different birth cohorts. The association of these variables with marital stability and numbers of partners at later ages was explored using statistical regression techniques.
AFS and AFM were inconsistently reported by 32% and 33% of respondents, respectively, but there was no general tendency to report lower or higher ages at a later report date. In 10-year birth cohorts born between 1950-9 and 1980-9, male median AFS declined from 18.1 to 17.0 years and female median AFM rose from 16.2 to 16.6 years. Young people of both sexes currently spend longer sexually active but unmarried than previously. Early marriage is statistically associated with remarriage and polygamy; longer time between sexual debut and marriage is associated with higher numbers of partners at later stages of life.
Inconsistent reporting of age-at-event introduces noise but does not bias estimates of population level indicators. Lengthening time spent single and sexually active suggests that men and women entering first marriage will have been exposed to increased numbers of non-marital partners. Successful youth interventions may also influence adult behaviour.
评估首次性行为和初婚数据的质量,衡量趋势,并研究青年期危险性行为与成年期危险行为之间的关联。
对1994 - 2004年基塞萨队列研究中首次性行为年龄(AFS)和初婚年龄(AFM)的报告进行一致性评估,并用于描述不同出生队列中事件发生时的中位年龄趋势以及单身但有性行为的时间。使用统计回归技术探讨这些变量与婚姻稳定性以及后期伴侣数量之间的关联。
分别有32%和33%的受访者对AFS和AFM的报告不一致,但在后续报告日期没有普遍倾向于报告更低或更高的年龄。在1950 - 1959年至1980 - 1989年出生的10年出生队列中,男性AFS中位数从18.1岁降至17.0岁,女性AFM中位数从16.2岁升至16.6岁。目前,两性青年单身但有性行为的时间比以前更长。早婚在统计学上与再婚和一夫多妻制相关;首次性行为与结婚之间的时间间隔更长与后期生活中的伴侣数量更多相关。
事件发生年龄的报告不一致会引入噪声,但不会使人口水平指标的估计产生偏差。单身且有性行为的时间延长表明,进入初婚的男性和女性将接触到更多的非婚姻伴侣。成功的青年干预措施也可能影响成年人的行为。