Donovan John E, Molina Brooke S G, Kelly Thomas M
Western Psychiatric Institute and Clinic, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Department of Psychiatry, School of Medicine, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA.
Psychol Addict Behav. 2009 Jun;23(2):248-59. doi: 10.1037/a0015061.
Alcohol expectancies are important predictors of alcohol involvement in both adolescents and adults, yet little research has examined the social origins and transmission of these beliefs. This paper examined alcohol outcome expectancies collected in a cohort-sequential longitudinal study of 452 families with children followed over seven waves. Children completed interviews every 6 months, and parents completed interviews annually. Eighteen of 27 alcohol expectancies were highly consensual, being endorsed by significantly more than 67% of the mothers and fathers. These consensual expectancies were also highly stable over a 3-year period. Over the same period, children increased their adoption of both the positive and negative consensual alcohol expectancies. Unconditional latent growth modeling showed that piece-wise growth models with a transition at age 12 fit the data best. Both the positive and negative consensual expectancies were adopted at a faster rate between ages 8.5 and 11.5 than between ages 12 and 13.5. For negative expectancies, there was no further growth between ages 12 and 13.5. Taken together, these findings support the conceptualization of alcohol outcome expectancies as socially shared and transmitted beliefs.
酒精预期是青少年和成年人饮酒行为的重要预测指标,但很少有研究探讨这些观念的社会根源和传播方式。本文研究了在一项队列序贯纵向研究中收集的酒精结果预期,该研究对452个有孩子的家庭进行了七轮跟踪。孩子们每6个月接受一次访谈,父母每年接受一次访谈。27种酒精预期中有18种具有高度共识性,得到了显著超过67%的母亲和父亲的认可。这些共识性预期在3年时间里也非常稳定。在同一时期,孩子们对积极和消极的共识性酒精预期的接受程度都有所增加。无条件潜在增长模型表明,在12岁时发生转变的分段增长模型最适合这些数据。积极和消极的共识性预期在8.5岁至11.5岁之间的采用速度比在12岁至13.5岁之间更快。对于消极预期,在12岁至13.5岁之间没有进一步增长。综上所述,这些发现支持了将酒精结果预期概念化为社会共享和传播的观念。