Clegg J C
Clin Microbiol Infect. 2009 Jun;15(6):504-9. doi: 10.1111/j.1469-0691.2009.02847.x.
The current worldwide incidence of viral haemorrhagic fevers caused by arenaviruses is briefly reviewed. The recently published Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has described the changes in global climate that are expected to occur over the course of the present century and beyond. Climate modelling and forecasting have not yet reached the stage where confident predictions of regional changes at the level of a virus endemic area can be made. However, in the regions where pathogenic arenaviruses now circulate, significant effects are likely to include increases in surface temperature, changes in the extent and distribution of rainfall, the occurrence of extreme weather events, glacier retreat, and coastal flooding as a result of sea level rise. The possible impact of these changes on the geographical location and the incidence of arenavirus diseases and its human impact are discussed.
本文简要回顾了目前由沙粒病毒引起的病毒性出血热在全球范围内的发病率。政府间气候变化专门委员会最近发布的评估报告描述了预计在本世纪及以后全球气候将会发生的变化。气候建模和预测尚未达到能够对病毒流行地区层面的区域变化做出可靠预测的阶段。然而，在目前致病性沙粒病毒传播的地区，显著影响可能包括地表温度升高、降雨范围和分布变化、极端天气事件的发生、冰川消退以及海平面上升导致的沿海洪水。本文讨论了这些变化对沙粒病毒疾病地理位置和发病率的可能影响及其对人类的影响。
