Schwarz Anne Caroline, Ranft Ulrich, Piechotowski Isolde, Childs James E, Brockmann Stefan O
Bernhard-Nocht-Institute for Tropical Medicine, Hamburg, Germany.
Emerg Infect Dis. 2009 Jul;15(7):1032-9. doi: 10.3201/eid1507.081413.
Puumala virus, which causes nephropathia epidemica (NE), is the most prevalent hantavirus in Germany; bank voles serve as the main reservoir. During 2001-2007, most NE cases reported from Germany occurred in the southwestern state of Baden-Württemberg. We investigated the influence of bank vole habitats (beech forest, seed plants), vole food supply (beechnut mast), climate factors (winter and spring temperatures), and human population density on spatial and temporal occurrence of NE cases in Baden-Württemberg. Using Poisson-regression analyses, we found that all these factors influenced disease incidence. Furthermore, an independent trend of increasing incidence predicted that incidence will nearly double each year. The regression model explained 75% of the annual variation in NE incidence. The results suggest that environmental drivers lead to increasing incidence of NE infections in the southern part or even other parts of Germany.
普马拉病毒可引发流行性肾病（NE），是德国最为常见的汉坦病毒；林姬鼠是其主要宿主。在2001年至2007年期间，德国报告的大多数NE病例发生在西南部的巴登-符腾堡州。我们调查了林姬鼠栖息地（山毛榉林、种子植物）、田鼠食物供应（山毛榉坚果丰收）、气候因素（冬季和春季气温）以及人口密度对巴登-符腾堡州NE病例时空发生情况的影响。通过泊松回归分析，我们发现所有这些因素均影响疾病发病率。此外，发病率上升的独立趋势预测发病率将几乎每年翻倍。回归模型解释了NE发病率年度变化的75%。结果表明，环境驱动因素导致德国南部甚至其他地区NE感染发病率上升。
