Research Institute, International Medical Center of Japan, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, Japan.
PLoS One. 2009 Sep 28;4(9):e7221. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0007221.
Large cities can contain populations that move rapidly from one section to another in an efficient transportation network. An emerging air-borne or contact based pathogen could use these transportation routes to rapidly spread an infection throughout an entire population in a short time. Further, in many developed countries, the aging population is increasing. The family structure in these societies may also affect the course of a disease. To help understand the impact of an epidemic on family structure in a networked population, an individual based computer model that randomly generates networked cities with a specified range of population and disease characteristics and individual schedules, infectivity, transmission and hygiene factors was developed. Several salient issues emerged. First, a city of highly active individuals may in fact diminish the number of fatalities because the average duration of the interactions between agents is reduced. Second, home schooling can significantly improve survival because the institutional clustering of weak individuals is minimized. Third, the worst scenario for an aging population is the nuclear family where the aged population is confined to large housing facilities. Naturally, hygiene is the first barrier to infection. The results suggest that societies where extended families and small groups manage most of their own affairs may also be the most suitable for defense against a pandemic. This may prove applicable in city planning and policy making.
大城市可以通过高效的交通网络，让人口在不同区域之间快速流动。新型空气传播或接触型病原体可能会利用这些交通路线，在短时间内迅速将感染传播到整个人口。此外，在许多发达国家，人口老龄化问题日益严重。这些社会的家庭结构也可能会影响疾病的发展过程。为了帮助了解传染病在网络人群中的家庭结构中的影响，我们开发了一种基于个体的计算机模型，该模型可以随机生成具有特定人口和疾病特征以及个体日程安排、传染性、传播和卫生因素的网络城市。出现了几个突出的问题。首先，一个高度活跃的人群的城市实际上可能会减少死亡人数，因为个体之间的接触平均持续时间减少了。其次，在家接受教育可以显著提高存活率，因为可以最小化弱势个体的机构聚集。第三，老龄化人口最糟糕的情况是核心家庭，老年人被限制在大型住房设施中。自然地，卫生是抵御感染的第一道屏障。结果表明，由大家庭和小团体管理大部分事务的社会也最适合抵御大流行。这在城市规划和决策中可能具有实际意义。
