Yasuda Hidenori, Yoshizawa Nobuaki, Kimura Mikio, Shigematsu Mika, Matsumoto Masaaki, Kawachi Shoji, Oshima Masamichi, Yamamoto Kenji, Suzuki Kazuo
Department of Mathematics, Josai University, Saitama, Sakado, Japan.
J Urban Health. 2008 Jul;85(4):619-35. doi: 10.1007/s11524-008-9264-0. Epub 2008 May 1.
In Greater Tokyo, many people commute by train between the suburbs and downtown Tokyo for 1 to 2 h per day. The spread of influenza in the suburbs of Tokyo should be studied, including the role of commuters and the effect of government policies on the spread of disease. We analyzed the simulated spread of influenza in commuter towns along a suburban railroad, using the individual-based Monte Carlo method, and validated this analysis using surveillance data of the infection in the Tokyo suburbs. This simulation reflects the mechanism of the real spread of influenza in commuter towns. Three measures against the spread of influenza were analyzed: prohibition of traffic, school closure, and vaccination of school children. Prohibition of traffic was not effective after the introduction of influenza into the commuter towns, but, if implemented early, it was somewhat effective in delaying the epidemic. School closure delayed the epidemic and reduced the peak of the disease, but it was not as effective in decreasing the number of infected people. Vaccination of school children decreased the numbers not only of infected children but also of infected adults in the regional communities.
在大东京地区，许多人每天花费1到2小时乘火车往返于东京郊区和市中心。应研究东京郊区流感的传播情况，包括通勤者所起的作用以及政府政策对疾病传播的影响。我们使用基于个体的蒙特卡洛方法，分析了沿市郊铁路通勤城镇中流感的模拟传播情况，并利用东京郊区感染情况的监测数据对该分析进行了验证。此模拟反映了流感在通勤城镇中实际传播的机制。分析了三种预防流感传播的措施：交通管制、学校停课以及学童接种疫苗。在流感传入通勤城镇后实施交通管制并无效果，但如果尽早实施，在延缓疫情方面有一定效果。学校停课延缓了疫情并降低了疾病峰值，但在减少感染人数方面效果不佳。学童接种疫苗不仅减少了区域社区中感染儿童的数量，也减少了感染成年人的数量。
