Susser M
Gertrude H. Sergievsky Center, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032.
Am J Epidemiol. 1991 Apr 1;133(7):635-48. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a115939.
In this paper, criteria used by many epidemiologists as aids in causal inference are reviewed and revised. The revised scheme emphasizes the distinction between essential properties of a cause and criteria useful for deciding on the presence of these properties in a given case. A systematic procedure for causal inference tests each essential causal property in turn against appropriate criteria. For a pragmatic epidemiology in which all determinants serve as causes, their essential properties are held to be association, time order, and direction, in an ascending hierarchy. Criteria for association are probabilistic and can be enhanced by strength and consistency. Given association, criteria for time order of the relevant variables follow from access to observation, which is dependent on design. Given association and time order, causal direction (or consequential change) calls on an array of criteria, namely, consistency and survivability, strength, specificity in cause and in effect, predictive performance, and coherence in all its forms (e.g., theoretical, factual, biologic, and statistical). The evolution of such criteria is traced through the epidemiologic literature in the light of historical context. Although Popper's philosophy cannot directly serve an inherently inductive judgmental process, his notion of survivability has here been added, alongside replicability, as a subclass of consistency. This criterion is proposed to bridge the gap between the particularity of designs and the generality required of causal relations. Designs are ordered and described in the framework of testing survivability. Finally, definitions are offered for the list of criteria deployed.
本文对许多流行病学家用于因果推断辅助的标准进行了回顾和修订。修订后的方案强调了原因的本质属性与用于判断给定案例中这些属性是否存在的标准之间的区别。因果推断的系统程序依次根据适当的标准对每个基本因果属性进行检验。对于一种所有决定因素都作为原因的实用流行病学而言，其基本属性在一个递增的层次结构中被认为是关联、时间顺序和方向性。关联的标准是概率性的，可以通过强度和一致性来增强。给定关联后，相关变量时间顺序的标准取决于观察的可及性，而这又依赖于设计。给定关联和时间顺序后，因果方向（或结果变化）需要一系列标准，即一致性和可存活性、强度、原因和结果的特异性、预测性能以及所有形式的连贯性（例如理论、事实、生物学和统计学的连贯性）。根据历史背景，通过流行病学文献追溯了此类标准的演变。虽然波普尔的哲学不能直接服务于一个固有的归纳判断过程，但他的可存活性概念在这里与可重复性一起被添加为一致性的一个子类。提出这个标准是为了弥合设计的特殊性与因果关系所需的普遍性之间的差距。在测试可存活性的框架内对设计进行排序和描述。最后，为所采用的标准列表提供了定义。
