Department of Anesthesiology, Post-anesthesia Care Unit and Acute Pain Service, Erasme Hospital, Route de Lennik 808, 1070 Brussels, Belgium.
J Gastrointest Surg. 2010 May;14(5):788-804. doi: 10.1007/s11605-010-1168-0. Epub 2010 Mar 13.
Eight clinical trials involving the administration of preoperative i.v. methylprednisolone have been undertaken in order to decrease the considerable inflammatory response to esophageal resection, in an effort to decrease the supposedly associated morbidity and mortality
A meta-analysis was performed for eight clinical end-points. Due to quality problems in seven of the eight included studies, a Bayesian meta-analysis using a skeptical prior derived from the results of the classical analysis was also performed.
The end-points including any organ dysfunction (OR = 0.30), respiratory complication (OR = 0.41), sepsis (OR = 0.37), liver dysfunction (OR = 18), cardiovascular dysfunction (OR = 0.28), and surgical anastomotic leak (OR = 0.42) were significantly decreased by methylprednisolone pretreatment. Following the Bayesian analysis, despite the use of skeptical priors, there is a 95% probability to obtain a relative risk reduction of at least 23% to 54%, depending of the end-point, by methylprednisolone pretreatment.
We are in the presence of a potential benefit that cannot be accepted at face value due to the quality problems of the included studies. But in the presence of a remaining potential benefit after a Bayesian analysis starting from a skeptical prior, the best option would be the planning of a large multicenter prospective randomized study.
为了减轻食管切除术后的严重炎症反应,从而降低相关发病率和死亡率,已经进行了八项涉及术前静脉注射甲基强的松龙的临床试验。
对八项临床终点进行了荟萃分析。由于八项纳入研究中有七项存在质量问题,因此还使用经典分析结果得出的怀疑先验值进行了贝叶斯荟萃分析。
甲基强的松龙预处理可显著降低包括任何器官功能障碍(OR=0.30)、呼吸并发症(OR=0.41)、败血症(OR=0.37)、肝功能障碍(OR=18)、心血管功能障碍(OR=0.28)和手术吻合口漏(OR=0.42)在内的终点。尽管使用了怀疑先验值,但贝叶斯分析后,仍有 95%的可能性通过甲基强的松龙预处理获得至少 23%至 54%的相对风险降低,这取决于终点。
由于纳入研究的质量问题,我们面临的是一个潜在的益处,不能仅凭表面价值来接受。但是,在从怀疑先验值开始进行贝叶斯分析后仍存在潜在益处的情况下,最佳选择是计划一项大型多中心前瞻性随机研究。