在一项模拟研究中,用Cox模型拟合非线性暴露-反应关系时替代平滑方法的比较。
The comparison of alternative smoothing methods for fitting non-linear exposure-response relationships with Cox models in a simulation study.
作者信息
Govindarajulu Usha S, Malloy Elizabeth J, Ganguli Bhaswati, Spiegelman Donna, Eisen Ellen A
机构信息
Harvard Medical School, USA.
出版信息
Int J Biostat. 2009 Jan 7;5(1):Article 2. doi: 10.2202/1557-4679.1104.
We examined the behavior of alternative smoothing methods for modeling environmental epidemiology data. Model fit can only be examined when the true exposure-response curve is known and so we used simulation studies to examine the performance of penalized splines (P-splines), restricted cubic splines (RCS), natural splines (NS), and fractional polynomials (FP). Survival data were generated under six plausible exposure-response scenarios with a right skewed exposure distribution, typical of environmental exposures. Cox models with each spline or FP were fit to simulated datasets. The best models, e.g. degrees of freedom, were selected using default criteria for each method. The root mean-square error (rMSE) and area difference were computed to assess model fit and bias (difference between the observed and true curves). The test for linearity was a measure of sensitivity and the test of the null was an assessment of statistical power. No one method performed best according to all four measures of performance, however, all methods performed reasonably well. The model fit was best for P-splines for almost all true positive scenarios, although fractional polynomials and RCS were least biased, on average.
我们研究了用于环境流行病学数据建模的替代平滑方法的行为。只有在已知真实暴露-反应曲线时才能检验模型拟合情况,因此我们通过模拟研究来检验惩罚样条(P样条)、受限立方样条(RCS)、自然样条(NS)和分数多项式(FP)的性能。生存数据是在六种合理的暴露-反应情景下生成的,暴露分布呈右偏态,这是环境暴露的典型特征。将带有每种样条或FP的Cox模型拟合到模拟数据集。使用每种方法的默认标准选择最佳模型,例如自由度。计算均方根误差(rMSE)和面积差异以评估模型拟合和偏差(观察曲线与真实曲线之间的差异)。线性检验是灵敏度的一种度量,而零假设检验是对统计功效的评估。根据所有四项性能指标,没有一种方法表现最佳,不过,所有方法的表现都还算不错。在几乎所有真实阳性情景下,P样条的模型拟合效果最佳,尽管分数多项式和RCS的平均偏差最小。
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