Cairns K Lisa, Nandy Robin, Grais Rebecca F
Global Immunization Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Rd, MS E-05, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA.
Emerg Themes Epidemiol. 2010 Jul 19;7(1):4. doi: 10.1186/1742-7622-7-4.
Measles, a highly infectious vaccine-preventable viral disease, is potentially fatal. Historically, measles case-fatality ratios (CFRs) have been reported to vary from 0.1% in the developed world to as high as 30% in emergency settings. Estimates of the global burden of mortality from measles, critical to prioritizing measles vaccination among other health interventions, are highly sensitive to the CFR estimates used in modeling; however, due to the lack of reliable, up-to-date data, considerable debate exists as to what CFR estimates are appropriate to use. To determine current measles CFRs in high-burden settings without vital registration we have conducted six retrospective measles mortality studies in such settings. This paper examines the methodological challenges of this work and our solutions to these challenges, including the integration of lessons from retrospective all-cause mortality studies into CFR studies, approaches to laboratory confirmation of outbreaks, and means of obtaining a representative sample of case-patients. Our experiences are relevant to those conducting retrospective CFR studies for measles or other diseases, and to those interested in all-cause mortality studies.
麻疹是一种极具传染性、可用疫苗预防的病毒性疾病,有潜在致命性。从历史上看,据报告麻疹病死率在发达国家为0.1%,在紧急情况下则高达30%。对麻疹全球死亡负担的估计对于在其他卫生干预措施中优先开展麻疹疫苗接种至关重要,该估计对建模中使用的病死率估计值高度敏感;然而,由于缺乏可靠的最新数据,对于使用何种病死率估计值才合适存在相当大的争议。为了确定在没有人口动态登记的高负担地区当前的麻疹病死率,我们在这些地区开展了六项回顾性麻疹死亡率研究。本文探讨了这项工作所面临的方法学挑战以及我们针对这些挑战的解决方案,包括将回顾性全死因死亡率研究的经验教训纳入病死率研究、实验室确认疫情爆发的方法以及获取病例代表性样本的手段。我们的经验对那些开展麻疹或其他疾病回顾性病死率研究的人员以及对全死因死亡率研究感兴趣的人员具有借鉴意义。