Department of Geography, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2011 Mar 29;108(13):5203-8. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1014123108. Epub 2011 Mar 14.
Two distinct views are evident in research on how rural communities in developing countries cope with extreme weather events brought by climate change: (i) that the resource-reliant poor are acutely vulnerable and need external assistance to prepare for such events, and (ii) that climate-related shocks can offer windows of opportunity in which latent local adaptive capacities are triggered, leading to systemic improvement. Results from a longitudinal study in a Tawahka community in Honduras before and after Hurricane Mitch (1994-2002) indicate that residents were highly vulnerable to the hurricane--due in part to previous development assistance--and that the poorest households were the hardest hit. Surprisingly, however, the disaster enabled the poor to initiate an institutional change that led to more equitable land distribution, slowed primary forest conversion, and positioned the community well to cope with comparable flooding occurring 10 y later. The study provides compelling evidence that communities can seize on the window of opportunity created by climate-induced shocks to generate sustained social-ecological improvement, and suggests that future interventions should foster local capacities for endogenous institutional change to enhance community resilience to climate shocks.
在研究发展中国家的农村社区如何应对气候变化带来的极端天气事件时,有两种截然不同的观点:(i)资源依赖型贫困人口极为脆弱,需要外部援助来为这些事件做准备,以及 (ii)与气候相关的冲击可以提供机会之窗,触发潜在的本地适应能力,从而导致系统的改善。洪都拉斯塔瓦哈卡社区在飓风米奇(1994-2002 年)前后进行的一项纵向研究的结果表明,居民极易受到飓风的影响——部分原因是之前的发展援助——而最贫困的家庭受灾最严重。然而,令人惊讶的是,这场灾难使穷人能够启动一项制度变革,导致土地分配更加公平,减缓了原始森林的转化,并使该社区在 10 年后发生类似洪水时能够很好地应对。该研究提供了令人信服的证据,表明社区可以抓住气候引发的冲击带来的机会窗口,实现可持续的社会-生态改善,并表明未来的干预措施应促进本地内生制度变革的能力,以增强社区对气候冲击的适应能力。