Gingrich Simone, Kušková Petra, Steinberger Julia K
Institute of Social Ecology, Faculty for Interdisciplinary Studies Vienna, University of Klagenfurt, Schottenfeldgasse 29/5, 1070 Wien, Austria.
Energy Policy. 2011 Feb;39(2):535-543. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2010.10.006.
This study presents fossil-fuel related CO(2) emissions in Austria and Czechoslovakia (current Czech Republic and Slovakia) for 1830-2000. The drivers of CO(2) emissions are discussed by investigating the variables of the standard Kaya identity for 1920-2000 and conducting a comparative Index Decomposition Analysis. Proxy data on industrial production and household consumption are analysed to understand the role of the economic structure. CO(2) emissions increased in both countries in the long run. Czechoslovakia was a stronger emitter of CO(2) throughout the time period, but per-capita emissions significantly differed only after World War I, when Czechoslovakia and Austria became independent. The difference in CO(2) emissions increased until the mid-1980s (the period of communism in Czechoslovakia), explained by the energy intensity and the composition effects, and higher industrial production in Czechoslovakia. Counterbalancing factors were the income effect and household consumption. After the Velvet revolution in 1990, Czechoslovak CO(2) emissions decreased, and the energy composition effect (and industrial production) lost importance. Despite their different political and economic development, Austria and Czechoslovakia reached similar levels of per-capita CO(2) emissions in the late 20th century. Neither Austrian "eco-efficiency" nor Czechoslovak restructuring have been effective in reducing CO(2) emissions to a sustainable level.
本研究展示了1830年至2000年奥地利和捷克斯洛伐克（现捷克共和国和斯洛伐克）与化石燃料相关的二氧化碳排放量。通过研究1920年至2000年标准卡亚恒等式的变量并进行比较性指数分解分析，探讨了二氧化碳排放的驱动因素。分析了工业生产和家庭消费的代理数据，以了解经济结构的作用。从长期来看，两国的二氧化碳排放量均有所增加。捷克斯洛伐克在整个时间段内都是更强的二氧化碳排放国，但人均排放量仅在第一次世界大战后显著不同，当时捷克斯洛伐克和奥地利独立。二氧化碳排放量的差异一直增加到20世纪80年代中期（捷克斯洛伐克的共产主义时期），这可以由能源强度和构成效应以及捷克斯洛伐克更高的工业生产来解释。起平衡作用的因素是收入效应和家庭消费。1990年天鹅绒革命后，捷克斯洛伐克的二氧化碳排放量下降，能源构成效应（以及工业生产）的重要性降低。尽管奥地利和捷克斯洛伐克有着不同的政治和经济发展历程，但在20世纪后期，它们的人均二氧化碳排放量达到了相似的水平。奥地利的“生态效率”和捷克斯洛伐克的结构调整都未能有效地将二氧化碳排放量降低到可持续水平。
