Max Planck Institute for Ornithology, Department of Migration and Immuno-ecology, Am Obstberg 1, 78315, Radolfzell, Germany.
University of Konstanz, Department of Biology, Universitätsstraße 10, 78464, Konstanz, Germany.
Sci Rep. 2019 Jan 30;9(1):955. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-37851-6.
For 107 endemic mammal species in the Afro-Arabian region, Sahara-Sahel and Arabian Desert, we used ensemble species distribution models to: (1) identify the hotspot areas for conservation, (2) assess the potential impact of the projected climate change on the distribution of the focal species, and (3) assign IUCN threat categories for the focal species according to the predicted changes in their potential distribution range. We identified two main hotspot areas for endemic mammals: the Sinai and its surrounding coastal area in the East, and the Mediterranean Coast around Morocco in the West. Alarmingly, our results indicate that about 17% of the endemic mammals in the Afro-Arabian region under the current climate change scenarios could go extinct before 2050. Overall, a substantial number of the endemic species will change from the IUCN threat category "Least Concern" to "Critically Endangered" or "Extinct" in the coming decades. Accordingly, we call for implementing an urgent proactive conservation action for these endemic species, particularly those that face a high risk of extinction in the next few years. The results of our study provide conservation managers and practitioners with the required information for implementing an effective conservation plan to protect the biodiversity of the Afro-Arabian region.
对于 107 种非洲-阿拉伯地区、撒哈拉-萨赫勒和阿拉伯沙漠特有的哺乳动物物种，我们使用集成物种分布模型来：（1）确定保护的热点区域，（2）评估预期气候变化对焦点物种分布的潜在影响，以及（3）根据预测的潜在分布范围变化，为焦点物种分配 IUCN 威胁类别。我们确定了两个主要的特有哺乳动物热点区域：东部的西奈半岛及其周边沿海地区，以及西部摩洛哥周围的地中海沿岸。令人震惊的是，我们的结果表明，在当前的气候变化情景下，非洲-阿拉伯地区约有 17%的特有哺乳动物可能在 2050 年前灭绝。总体而言，在未来几十年，大量特有物种将从 IUCN 的“最不受关注”类别变为“极危”或“灭绝”。因此，我们呼吁为这些特有物种采取紧急的主动保护行动，特别是那些在未来几年内面临高灭绝风险的物种。我们的研究结果为保护管理者和从业者提供了实施有效保护计划以保护非洲-阿拉伯地区生物多样性所需的信息。
