Riggs J E
Department of Neurology, West Virginia University School of Medicine, Morgantown 26506.
Mech Ageing Dev. 1990 Jun;54(3):235-47. doi: 10.1016/0047-6374(90)90053-i.
Analysis of mortality data for the United States from 1900 through 1986 demonstrates near perfect Gompertzian mortality rate distributions for adult American men and women. In the U.S. between 1900 and 1986, annual age-adjusted mortality rate distributions were determined by a fixed common intersect point (for men, the mortality rate at age 87.41 years was 18,810/100,000; for women, the extrapolated mortality rate at age 108.69 years was 75,365/100,000) and a variable environmental factor. Despite living in the same environment, the environmental factor contributing to adult mortality is at present significantly less for women than men. However, analysis predicts that in an environment less conducive to human survival than has existed in the United States during this century, the environmental factor contributing to adult mortality was less for men than women. The study further implies that as the environment becomes more favorable for human survival, men will experience an effective lowering of their theoretical maximal life span toward a limit of 87.4 years. The calculated maximal life span for men has already decreased 7 years during this century. This negative effect of a more favorable environment also occurs in women, although the theoretical maximal life span in women is lowered only toward a limit of 108.7 years.
对1900年至1986年美国死亡率数据的分析表明，美国成年男性和女性的死亡率分布近乎完美地符合冈珀茨死亡率分布。在1900年至1986年的美国，年度年龄调整死亡率分布由一个固定的共同交点（男性在87.41岁时的死亡率为18,810/100,000；女性在108.69岁时的外推死亡率为75,365/100,000）和一个可变的环境因素决定。尽管生活在相同环境中，但目前导致成年人死亡的环境因素对女性的影响明显小于男性。然而，分析预测，在一个比本世纪美国存在的环境更不利于人类生存的环境中，导致成年人死亡的环境因素对男性的影响小于女性。该研究进一步表明，随着环境变得更有利于人类生存，男性的理论最大寿命将朝着87.4岁的极限有效降低。在本世纪，男性计算出的最大寿命已经减少了7年。环境更有利的这种负面影响在女性中也会出现，尽管女性的理论最大寿命仅朝着108.7岁的极限降低。
