Institut de recherche pour le développement, Paris, France.
Demography. 2012 Feb;49(1):77-100. doi: 10.1007/s13524-011-0083-7.
I examine the potential impact of the anticipated future marriage squeeze on nuptiality patterns in China and India during the twenty-first century. I use population projections from 2005 to 2100 based on three different scenarios for the sex ratio at birth (SRB). To counteract the limitations of cross-sectional methods commonly used to assess the severity of marriage squeezes, I use a two-sex cohort-based procedure to simulate marriage patterns over the twenty-first century based on the female dominance model. I also examine two more-flexible marriage functions to illustrate the potential impact of changes in marriage schedules as a response to the marriage squeeze. Longitudinal indicators of marriage squeeze indicate that the number of prospective grooms in both countries will exceed that of prospective brides by more 50% for three decades in the most favorable scenario. Rates of male bachelorhood will not peak before 2050, and the squeeze conditions will be felt several decades thereafter, even among cohorts unaffected by adverse SRB. If the SRB is allowed to return to normalcy by 2020, the proportion of men unmarried at age 50 is expected to rise to 15% in China by 2055 and to 10% in India by 2065. India suffers from the additional impact of a delayed fertility transition on its age structures.
我考察了未来预期的婚姻挤压对 21 世纪中国和印度婚姻模式的潜在影响。我使用了基于三种不同出生性别比（SRB）情景的 2005 年至 2100 年的人口预测。为了克服常用的评估婚姻挤压严重程度的横截面方法的局限性，我使用了一种基于女性主导模型的基于两性队列的方法，模拟了 21 世纪的婚姻模式。我还检查了两种更灵活的婚姻函数，以说明作为对婚姻挤压的反应而改变婚姻计划的潜在影响。婚姻挤压的纵向指标表明，在最有利的情景下，两国未来的新郎数量将比未来的新娘数量多 50%以上，持续三十年。男性单身汉的比例在 2050 年之前不会达到峰值，而且即使在不受不利的 SRB 影响的队列中，几十年后仍会感受到挤压的情况。如果到 2020 年允许 SRB 恢复正常，那么到 2055 年，中国 50 岁时未婚男性的比例预计将上升到 15%，到 2065 年将上升到 10%。印度还受到生育率转变延迟对其年龄结构的额外影响。
