School of Psychology, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QG, UK.
Risk Anal. 2012 Jun;32(6):992-1002. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01771.x. Epub 2012 Feb 10.
In two experimental studies we investigated the effect of beliefs about the nature and purpose of science (classical vs. Kuhnian models of science) on responses to uncertainty in scientific messages about climate change risk. The results revealed a significant interaction between both measured (Study 1) and manipulated (Study 2) beliefs about science and the level of communicated uncertainty on willingness to act in line with the message. Specifically, messages that communicated high uncertainty were more persuasive for participants who shared an understanding of science as debate than for those who believed that science is a search for absolute truth. In addition, participants who had a concept of science as debate were more motivated by higher (rather than lower) uncertainty in climate change messages. The results suggest that achieving alignment between the general public's beliefs about science and the style of the scientific messages is crucial for successful risk communication in science. Accordingly, rather than uncertainty always undermining the effectiveness of science communication, uncertainty can enhance message effects when it fits the audience's understanding of what science is.
在两项实验研究中,我们考察了对科学本质和目的的信念(经典科学模型与库恩科学模型)对气候变化风险科学信息不确定性反应的影响。结果表明,在测量(研究 1)和操纵(研究 2)信念与传达不确定性水平对按照信息采取行动的意愿之间存在显著的交互作用。具体而言,对于那些将科学理解为辩论的参与者来说,传达高不确定性的信息比那些认为科学是对绝对真理的追求的参与者更有说服力。此外,那些将科学视为辩论的参与者,在气候变化信息中,更高(而不是更低)的不确定性会使他们更有动力。研究结果表明,在公众对科学的信念和科学信息的风格之间实现一致性,对于科学风险传播的成功至关重要。因此,不确定性并不总是破坏科学传播的有效性,而是当它符合受众对科学的理解时,不确定性可以增强信息的效果。