Holm Astrid Ledgaard, Glümer Charlotte, Diderichsen Finn
Department of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Section of Social Medicine, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Copenhagen, Denmark.
BMJ Open. 2012 Jul 24;2(4). doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2012-001135. Print 2012.
To quantify the effects of increased cycling on both mortality and morbidity.
Health Impact Assessment.
Cycling to place of work or education in Copenhagen, Denmark.
Effects were calculated based on the working-age population of Copenhagen.
The primary outcome measure was change in burden of disease (measured as disability-adjusted life years (DALY)) due to changed exposure to the health determinants physical inactivity, air pollution (particulate matter <2.5 μm) and traffic accidents.
Obtainment of the proposed increase in cycling could reduce the burden of disease in the study population by 19.5 DALY annually. This overall effect comprised a reduction in the burden of disease from health outcomes associated with physical inactivity (76.0 DALY) and an increase in the burden of disease from outcomes associated with air pollution and traffic accidents (5.4 and 51.2 DALY, respectively).
This study illustrates how quantitative Health Impact Assessment can help clarify potential effects of policies: increased cycling involves opposing effects from different outcomes but with the overall health effect being positive. This result illustrates the importance of designing policies that promote the health benefits and minimise the health risks related to cycling.
量化骑行增加对死亡率和发病率的影响。
健康影响评估。
丹麦哥本哈根骑车上班或上学的情况。
基于哥本哈根工作年龄人口计算影响。
主要结局指标是由于身体活动不足、空气污染（细颗粒物<2.5μm）和交通事故等健康决定因素暴露变化导致的疾病负担变化（以伤残调整生命年（DALY）衡量）。
实现提议的骑行增加量每年可使研究人群的疾病负担减少19.5个DALY。这一总体效果包括与身体活动不足相关的健康结局导致的疾病负担减少（76.0个DALY），以及与空气污染和交通事故相关的结局导致的疾病负担增加（分别为5.4个和51.2个DALY）。
本研究说明了定量健康影响评估如何有助于阐明政策的潜在影响：骑行增加涉及不同结局的相反影响，但总体健康影响是积极的。这一结果说明了设计既能促进与骑行相关的健康益处又能将健康风险降至最低的政策的重要性。
