Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305, USA.
J Exp Anal Behav. 2013 Jan;99(1):58-73. doi: 10.1002/jeab.6. Epub 2012 Dec 5.
Psychological models of temporal discounting have now successfully displaced classical economic theory due to the simple fact that many common behavior patterns, such as impulsivity, were unexplainable with classic models. However, the now dominant hyperbolic model of discounting is itself becoming increasingly strained. Numerous factors have arisen that alter discount rates with no means to incorporate the different influences into standard hyperbolic models. Furthermore, disparate literatures are emerging that propose theoretical constructs that are seemingly independent of hyperbolic discounting. We argue that, although hyperbolic discounting provides an eminently useful quantitative measure of discounting, it fails as a descriptive psychological model of the cognitive processes that produce intertemporal preferences. Instead, we propose that recent contributions from cognitive neuroscience indicate a path for developing a general model of time discounting. New data suggest a means by which neuroscience-based theory may both integrate the diverse empirical data on time preferences and merge seemingly disparate theoretical models that impinge on time preferences.
现在，由于许多常见的行为模式，如冲动，无法用经典模型解释，时间折扣的心理模型已经成功地取代了古典经济学理论。然而，现在占主导地位的双曲线折扣模型本身也变得越来越紧张。出现了许多因素，这些因素改变了折扣率，却没有办法将不同的影响纳入标准的双曲线模型中。此外，不同的文献正在出现，提出了似乎独立于双曲线折扣的理论结构。我们认为，尽管双曲线折扣为折扣提供了一个非常有用的定量衡量标准，但它作为产生跨期偏好的认知过程的描述性心理模型是失败的。相反，我们提出，认知神经科学的最新贡献为开发一个通用的时间折扣模型指明了方向。新的数据表明，一种方法可以使基于神经科学的理论既能整合关于时间偏好的各种经验数据，又能融合那些对时间偏好有影响的看似不同的理论模型。
