Martinez Eugenio, Mejia Raul, Pérez-Stable Eliseo J
Instituto de Estudios Laborales y del Desarrollo Económico (IELDE) and Consejo de Investigaciones de la Universidad Nacional de Salta (CIUNSa), Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de Salta, Salta, Argentina.
Centro de Estudios de Estado y Sociedad and Programa de Medicina Interna General, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Tob Control. 2015 Jan;24(1):89-93. doi: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2012-050711. Epub 2013 Jun 12.
To estimate the long-term and short-term effects on cigarette demand in Argentina based on changes in cigarette price and income per person >14 years old.
Public data from the Ministry of Economics and Production were analysed based on monthly time series data between 1994 and 2010. The econometric analysis used cigarette consumption per person >14 years of age as the dependent variable and the real income per person >14 years old and the real average price of cigarettes as independent variables. Empirical analyses were done to verify the order of integration of the variables, to test for cointegration to capture the long-term effects and to capture the short-term dynamics of the variables.
The demand for cigarettes in Argentina was affected by changes in real income and the real average price of cigarettes. The long-term income elasticity was equal to 0.43, while the own-price elasticity was equal to -0.31, indicating a 10% increase in the growth of real income led to an increase in cigarette consumption of 4.3% and a 10% increase in the price produced a fall of 3.1% in cigarette consumption. The vector error correction model estimated that the short-term income elasticity was 0.25 and the short-term own-price elasticity of cigarette demand was -0.15. A simulation exercise showed that increasing the price of cigarettes by 110% would maximise revenues and result in a potentially large decrease in total cigarette consumption.
Econometric analyses of cigarette consumption and their relationship with cigarette price and income can provide valuable information for developing cigarette price policy.
根据香烟价格和14岁以上人群人均收入的变化，评估其对阿根廷香烟需求的长期和短期影响。
基于1994年至2010年的月度时间序列数据，分析了经济与生产部的公开数据。计量经济学分析以14岁以上人群的人均香烟消费量作为因变量，以14岁以上人群的实际人均收入和香烟实际平均价格作为自变量。进行实证分析以验证变量的积分阶数，检验协整关系以捕捉长期影响，并捕捉变量的短期动态。
阿根廷的香烟需求受到实际收入和香烟实际平均价格变化的影响。长期收入弹性等于0.43，而自身价格弹性等于-0.31，这表明实际收入增长10%会导致香烟消费量增加4.3%，价格上涨10%会使香烟消费量下降3.1%。向量误差修正模型估计短期收入弹性为0.25，香烟需求的短期自身价格弹性为-0.15。一项模拟分析表明，将香烟价格提高110%将使收入最大化，并可能导致香烟总消费量大幅下降。
对香烟消费及其与香烟价格和收入关系的计量经济学分析可为制定香烟价格政策提供有价值的信息。
