Guindon G Emmanuel, Paraje Guillermo R, Chaloupka Frank J
G. Emmanuel Guindon is with the Centre for Health Economics and Policy Analysis and the Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, McMaster University, Hamilton. Guillermo R. Paraje is with the Escuela de Negocios, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez, Santiago, Chile. Frank J. Chaloupka is with the Department of Economics and the Institute for Health Research and Policy, University of Illinois, Chicago, and the US National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.
Am J Public Health. 2015 Mar;105(3):e9-19. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2014.302396. Epub 2015 Jan 20.
We examined the impact of tobacco prices or taxes on tobacco use in Latin America and Caribbean countries. We searched MEDLINE, EconLit, LILACS, unpublished literature, 6 specialty journals, and reviewed references. We calculated pooled price elasticities using random-effects models. The 32 studies we examined found that cigarette prices have a negative and statistically significant effect on cigarette consumption. A change in price is associated with a less than proportional change in the quantity of cigarettes demanded. In most Latin American countries, own-price elasticity for cigarettes is likely below -0.5 (pooled elasticities, short-run: -0.31; 95% confidence interval=-0.39, -0.24; long-run: -0.43; 95% CI=-0.51, -0.35). Tax increases effectively reduce cigarette use. Lack of studies using household- or individual-level data limits research's policy relevance.
我们研究了烟草价格或税收对拉丁美洲和加勒比国家烟草使用的影响。我们检索了MEDLINE、EconLit、LILACS、未发表的文献、6种专业期刊，并查阅了参考文献。我们使用随机效应模型计算合并价格弹性。我们审查的32项研究发现，香烟价格对香烟消费有负面且具有统计学意义的影响。价格变化与香烟需求量的变化不成比例。在大多数拉丁美洲国家，香烟的自身价格弹性可能低于-0.5（合并弹性，短期：-0.31；95%置信区间=-0.39，-0.24；长期：-0.43；95%置信区间=-0.51，-0.35）。提高税收有效地减少了香烟使用。缺乏使用家庭或个人层面数据的研究限制了研究与政策的相关性。
