Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3), Doctor Trueta 203, Barcelona 08005, Spain.
Acta Trop. 2014 Jan;129:61-73. doi: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2013.08.004. Epub 2013 Aug 16.
Vector-borne diseases, such as dengue, malaria and chikungunya, are increasing across their traditional ranges and continuing to infiltrate new, previously unaffected, regions. The spatio-temporal evolution of these diseases is determined by the interaction of the host and vector, which is strongly dependent on social structures and mobility patterns. We develop an agent-based model (ABM), in which each individual is explicitly represented and vector populations are linked to precipitation estimates in a tropical setting. The model is implemented on both scale-free and regular networks. The spatio-temporal transmission of chikungunya is analysed and the presence of asymptomatic silent spreaders within the population is investigated in the context of implementing travel restrictions during an outbreak. Preventing the movement of symptomatic individuals is found to be an insufficient mechanism to halt the spread of the disease, which can be readily carried to neighbouring nodes via sub-clinical individuals. Furthermore, the impact of topology structure vs. precipitation levels is assessed and precipitation is found to be the dominant factor driving spatio-temporal transmission.
虫媒传染病（例如登革热、疟疾和基孔肯雅热）在其传统范围内不断增加，并继续渗透到以前未受影响的新地区。这些疾病的时空演变取决于宿主和媒介的相互作用，而这种相互作用强烈依赖于社会结构和流动模式。我们开发了一个基于主体的模型（ABM），其中每个个体都被明确表示，并且媒介种群与热带地区的降水估计相关联。该模型在无标度网络和规则网络上都得到了实现。我们分析了基孔肯雅热的时空传播，并在疫情爆发期间实施旅行限制的背景下，研究了无症状沉默传播者在人群中的存在。我们发现，阻止症状患者的移动不足以阻止疾病的传播，因为通过亚临床患者可以很容易地将疾病传播到邻近的节点。此外，我们还评估了拓扑结构与降水水平的影响，发现降水是驱动时空传播的主要因素。
