Department of Statistics, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 24061, Blacksburg, Virginia, USA.
Ecotoxicology. 1993 Sep;2(3):203-19. doi: 10.1007/BF00116425.
: Extrapolation methods form the basis for most recent techniques used to set 'safe' levels of toxicants for ecosystems. Most methods use information from several single species toxicity tests to predict safety factors for protecting all species in all communities in a nation or group of nations. There are a number of statistical and ecological concerns with this approach. These include assumptions about the shape of the distribution of tolerance to a toxicant, the ability to extrapolate information on laboratory species and condition to field species and condition and to the condition of communities and ecosystems, and assumptions about the appropriateness of laboratory measures relative to ecosystem measures. The approach has not been validated for safety and, before the approach is fully applied, needs to be validated. Other methods can be used with the extrapolation approach to reduce uncertainties.
外推法是目前用于为生态系统设定有毒物质“安全”水平的大多数最新技术的基础。大多数方法利用来自几个单一物种毒性测试的信息，来预测保护一个国家或国家集团的所有物种和所有群落的安全系数。这种方法存在一些统计和生态方面的问题。这些问题包括对毒物耐受分布形状的假设、将实验室物种和条件的信息外推到野外物种和条件以及群落和生态系统条件的能力、以及关于实验室措施相对于生态系统措施的适当性的假设。该方法尚未经过安全性验证，在全面应用该方法之前，需要进行验证。可以使用其他方法与外推方法结合使用，以减少不确定性。
