Stewart Ibarra Anna M, Ryan Sadie J, Beltrán Efrain, Mejía Raúl, Silva Mercy, Muñoz Angel
Center for Global Health and Translational Sciences, State University of New York Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, New York, United States of America ; Department of Environmental and Forest Biology, State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, New York, United States of America ; National Service for the Control of Vector-Borne Diseases, Ministry of Health, Machala, Ecuador ; National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Guayaquil, Ecuador.
PLoS One. 2013 Nov 12;8(11):e78263. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0078263. eCollection 2013.
Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne viral disease, is now the fastest spreading tropical disease globally. Previous studies indicate that climate and human behavior interact to influence dengue virus and vector (Aedes aegypti) population dynamics; however, the relative effects of these variables depends on local ecology and social context. We investigated the roles of climate and socio-ecological factors on Ae. aegypti population dynamics in Machala, a city in southern coastal Ecuador where dengue is hyper-endemic.
METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We studied two proximate urban localities where we monitored weekly Ae. aegypti oviposition activity (Nov. 2010-June 2011), conducted seasonal pupal surveys, and surveyed household to identify dengue risk factors. The results of this study provide evidence that Ae. aegypti population dynamics are influenced by social risk factors that vary by season and lagged climate variables that vary by locality. Best-fit models to predict the presence of Ae. aegypti pupae included parameters for household water storage practices, access to piped water, the number of households per property, condition of the house and patio, and knowledge and perceptions of dengue. Rainfall and minimum temperature were significant predictors of oviposition activity, although the effect of rainfall varied by locality due to differences in types of water storage containers.
These results indicate the potential to reduce the burden of dengue in this region by conducting focused vector control interventions that target high-risk households and containers in each season and by developing predictive models using climate and non-climate information. These findings provide the region's public health sector with key information for conducting time and location-specific vector control campaigns, and highlight the importance of local socio-ecological studies to understand dengue dynamics. See Text S1 for an executive summary in Spanish.
登革热是一种由蚊子传播的病毒性疾病，是目前全球传播速度最快的热带疾病。先前的研究表明，气候和人类行为相互作用，影响登革热病毒和病媒（埃及伊蚊）的种群动态；然而，这些变量的相对影响取决于当地生态和社会背景。我们调查了气候和社会生态因素对埃及伊蚊种群动态的作用，研究地点为厄瓜多尔南部沿海城市马查拉，该地登革热高度流行。
方法/主要发现：我们研究了两个相邻的城市区域，每周监测埃及伊蚊的产卵活动（2010年11月至2011年6月），进行季节性蛹调查，并对家庭进行调查以确定登革热风险因素。本研究结果表明，埃及伊蚊的种群动态受到随季节变化的社会风险因素以及随地点变化的滞后气候变量的影响。预测埃及伊蚊蛹存在的最佳拟合模型包括家庭储水习惯、自来水供应情况、每处房产的家庭数量、房屋和庭院状况以及对登革热的认知等参数。降雨和最低温度是产卵活动的重要预测因素，不过由于储水容器类型不同，降雨的影响因地点而异。
这些结果表明，通过在每个季节针对高风险家庭和容器开展有针对性的病媒控制干预措施，以及利用气候和非气候信息开发预测模型，有可能减轻该地区的登革热负担。这些发现为该地区的公共卫生部门提供了开展特定时间和地点的病媒控制活动的关键信息，并突出了当地社会生态研究对于理解登革热动态的重要性。西班牙语执行摘要见文本S1。
