Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Tinbergen Building, South Parks Road, Oxford, UK.
Parasit Vectors. 2013 Dec 12;6:351. doi: 10.1186/1756-3305-6-351.
The survival of adult female Aedes mosquitoes is a critical component of their ability to transmit pathogens such as dengue viruses. One of the principal determinants of Aedes survival is temperature, which has been associated with seasonal changes in Aedes populations and limits their geographical distribution. The effects of temperature and other sources of mortality have been studied in the field, often via mark-release-recapture experiments, and under controlled conditions in the laboratory. Survival results differ and reconciling predictions between the two settings has been hindered by variable measurements from different experimental protocols, lack of precision in measuring survival of free-ranging mosquitoes, and uncertainty about the role of age-dependent mortality in the field.
Here we apply generalised additive models to data from 351 published adult Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus survival experiments in the laboratory to create survival models for each species across their range of viable temperatures. These models are then adjusted to estimate survival at different temperatures in the field using data from 59 Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus field survivorship experiments. The uncertainty at each stage of the modelling process is propagated through to provide confidence intervals around our predictions.
Our results indicate that adult Ae. albopictus has higher survival than Ae. aegypti in the laboratory and field, however, Ae. aegypti can tolerate a wider range of temperatures. A full breakdown of survival by age and temperature is given for both species. The differences between laboratory and field models also give insight into the relative contributions to mortality from temperature, other environmental factors, and senescence and over what ranges these factors can be important.
Our results support the importance of producing site-specific mosquito survival estimates. By including fluctuating temperature regimes, our models provide insight into seasonal patterns of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus population dynamics that may be relevant to seasonal changes in dengue virus transmission. Our models can be integrated with Aedes and dengue modelling efforts to guide and evaluate vector control, better map the distribution of disease and produce early warning systems for dengue epidemics.
成年雌性伊蚊的存活是其传播登革热病毒等病原体能力的关键组成部分。伊蚊存活的主要决定因素之一是温度，温度与伊蚊种群的季节性变化有关，并限制了它们的地理分布。温度和其他死亡源的影响已经在野外进行了研究，通常是通过标记释放再捕获实验，并在实验室中进行控制条件下的研究。由于来自不同实验方案的变量测量、对自由生活的蚊子的存活测量精度不足以及对野外年龄相关死亡率的作用的不确定性，因此，生存结果存在差异，并且在这两种设置之间进行预测的协调受到阻碍。
在这里，我们应用广义加性模型来处理来自 351 个已发表的实验室中成年埃及伊蚊和白纹伊蚊生存实验的数据，为每个物种在其可行温度范围内创建生存模型。然后，使用来自 59 个埃及伊蚊和白纹伊蚊野外生存实验的数据，调整这些模型来估计野外不同温度下的生存。在建模过程的每个阶段，将不确定性传播出去，为我们的预测提供置信区间。
我们的结果表明，在实验室和野外，成年白纹伊蚊的存活率高于埃及伊蚊，但埃及伊蚊能耐受更宽的温度范围。给出了这两个物种的按年龄和温度划分的完整存活率细分。实验室和野外模型之间的差异还深入了解了温度、其他环境因素以及衰老对死亡率的相对贡献，以及这些因素在什么范围内可能很重要。
我们的结果支持针对特定地点产生蚊子存活估计的重要性。通过包含波动的温度范围，我们的模型提供了对埃及伊蚊和白纹伊蚊种群动态的季节性模式的深入了解，这可能与登革热病毒传播的季节性变化有关。我们的模型可以与伊蚊和登革热模型相结合，以指导和评估蚊虫控制，更好地绘制疾病分布，并为登革热流行提供早期预警系统。
