Jacob Peter, Kaiser Jan Christian, Ulanovsky Alexander
Department of Radiation Sciences, Institute of Radiation Protection, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Ingolstädter Landstraße 1, 85764, Neuherberg, Germany,
Radiat Environ Biophys. 2014 May;53(2):391-401. doi: 10.1007/s00411-013-0508-3. Epub 2014 Jan 9.
Thyroid cancer is one of the major health concerns after the accident in the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power station (NPS). Currently, ultrasonography surveys are being performed for persons residing in the Fukushima Prefecture at the time of the accident with an age of up to 18 years. Here, the expected thyroid cancer prevalence in the Fukushima Prefecture is assessed based on an ultrasonography survey of Ukrainians, who were exposed at an age of up to 18 years to (131)I released during the Chernobyl NPS accident, and on differences in equipment and study protocol in the two surveys. Radiation risk of thyroid cancer incidence among survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and preliminary estimates of thyroid dose due to the Fukushima accident were used for the prediction of baseline and radiation-related thyroid cancer risks. We estimate a prevalence of thyroid cancer of 0.027 % (95 % CI 0.010 %; 0.050 %) for the first screening campaign in the Fukushima Prefecture. Compared with the incidence rate in Japan in 2007, the ultrasonography survey is predicted to increase baseline thyroid cancer incidence by a factor of 7.4 (95 % CI 0.95; 17.3). Under the condition of continued screening, thyroid cancer during the first fifty years after the accident is predicted to be detected for about 2 % of the screened population. The prediction of radiation-related thyroid cancer in the most exposed fraction (a few ten thousand persons) of the screened population of the Fukushima Prefecture has a large uncertainty with the best estimates of the average risk of 0.1-0.3 %, depending on average dose.
甲状腺癌是福岛第一核电站事故后主要的健康问题之一。目前，正在对事故发生时居住在福岛县、年龄在18岁以下的人员进行超声检查。在此，基于对切尔诺贝利核电站事故期间18岁以下接触过（131）I的乌克兰人进行的超声检查，以及两次检查在设备和研究方案上的差异，对福岛县甲状腺癌的预期患病率进行了评估。广岛和长崎原子弹爆炸幸存者中甲状腺癌发病的辐射风险以及福岛事故所致甲状腺剂量的初步估计被用于预测基线和辐射相关的甲状腺癌风险。我们估计福岛县首次筛查活动中甲状腺癌的患病率为0.027%（95%可信区间0.010%；0.050%）。与2007年日本的发病率相比，超声检查预计会使基线甲状腺癌发病率提高7.4倍（95%可信区间0.95；17.3）。在持续筛查的情况下，预计事故后最初五十年内约2%的筛查人群会被检测出甲状腺癌。福岛县筛查人群中受辐射最严重的部分（几万人）辐射相关甲状腺癌的预测存在很大不确定性，根据平均剂量不同，平均风险的最佳估计值为0.1 - 0.3%。
