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韩国八个城市中高温、低温及热浪对住院率的影响。

The impact of heat, cold, and heat waves on hospital admissions in eight cities in Korea.

作者信息

Son Ji-Young, Bell Michelle L, Lee Jong-Tae

机构信息

School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.

出版信息

Int J Biometeorol. 2014 Nov;58(9):1893-903. doi: 10.1007/s00484-014-0791-y. Epub 2014 Jan 21.

Abstract

Although the impact of temperature on mortality is well documented, relatively fewer studies have evaluated the associations of temperature with morbidity outcomes such as hospital admissions, and most studies were conducted in North America or Europe. We evaluated weather and hospital admissions including specific causes (allergic disease, asthma, selected respiratory disease, and cardiovascular disease) in eight major cities in Korea from 2003 to 2008. We also explored potential effect modification by individual characteristics such as sex and age. We used hierarchical modeling to first estimate city-specific associations between heat, cold, or heat waves and hospitalizations, and then estimated overall effects. Stratified analyses were performed by cause of hospitalization, sex, and age (0-14, 15-64, 65-74, and ≥75 years). Cardiovascular hospitalizations were significantly associated with high temperature, whereas hospitalizations for allergic disease, asthma, and selected respiratory disease were significantly associated with low temperature. The overall heat effect for cardiovascular hospitalization was a 4.5% (95% confidence interval 0.7, 8.5%) increase in risk comparing hospitalizations at 25 to 15 °C. For cold effect, the overall increase in risk of hospitalizations comparing 2 with 15 °C was 50.5 (13.7, 99.2%), 43.6 (8.9, 89.5%), and 53.6% (9.8, 114.9%) for allergic disease, asthma, and selected respiratory disease, respectively. We did not find statistically significant effects of heat waves compared with nonheat wave days. Our results suggest susceptible populations such as women and younger persons. Our findings provide suggestive evidence that both high and low ambient temperatures are associated with the risk of hospital admissions, particularly in women or younger person, in Korea.

摘要

尽管温度对死亡率的影响已有充分记录,但相对较少的研究评估了温度与诸如住院等发病结果之间的关联,且大多数研究是在北美或欧洲进行的。我们评估了2003年至2008年韩国八个主要城市的天气情况以及包括特定病因(过敏性疾病、哮喘、特定呼吸道疾病和心血管疾病)在内的住院情况。我们还探讨了性别和年龄等个体特征对潜在影响的修正作用。我们使用分层模型首先估计高温、低温或热浪与住院之间的特定城市关联,然后估计总体影响。按住院原因、性别和年龄(0 - 14岁、15 - 64岁、65 - 74岁和≥75岁)进行分层分析。心血管疾病住院与高温显著相关,而过敏性疾病、哮喘和特定呼吸道疾病的住院与低温显著相关。与25℃至15℃时的住院情况相比,心血管疾病住院的总体热效应使风险增加了4.5%(95%置信区间0.7,8.5%)。对于冷效应,与15℃相比,2℃时过敏性疾病、哮喘和特定呼吸道疾病住院风险的总体增加分别为50.5%(13.7,99.2%)、43.6%(8.9,89.5%)和53.6%(9.8,114.9%)。与非热浪日相比,我们未发现热浪有统计学显著影响。我们的结果表明女性和年轻人等易感人群。我们的研究结果提供了提示性证据,即韩国的高环境温度和低环境温度均与住院风险相关,尤其是在女性或年轻人中。

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