Doron Julie, Gaudreau Patrick
Department of Sport and Physical Education Sciences, Laboratory LIRTES (EA 7313), Paris-East Créteil University, Créteil, France.
J Sport Exerc Psychol. 2014 Feb;36(1):3-13. doi: 10.1123/jsep.2013-0043.
This study aimed to revisit the complex nature of serial dependency of performance during a match, examining the prospective associations between psychological processes and subsequent performance at the within-person level of analysis, and explore whether psychological processes are associated with the likelihood of winning series of points. A process-oriented sequential approach was used with 16 elite fencers during a simulated competition. Multilevel regression analyses revealed that serial dependency of performance fluctuates within a match. Results of a Bayesian multilevel structural equation model showed that prior performance subsequently influenced psychological processes. Although psychological processes did not predict performance in the subsequent point, successive winnings were associated with higher perceived control and task-oriented coping and lower negative affectivity compared with both losing streaks and nonstreaks. Overall, serial dependencies of performance are nonstationary during a match whereas psychological processes significantly differ in episodes of winning after winning versus losing after losing.
本研究旨在重新审视比赛期间表现的序列依赖性的复杂本质，在个体层面的分析中检验心理过程与后续表现之间的前瞻性关联，并探讨心理过程是否与赢得连续分数的可能性相关。在模拟比赛期间，对16名精英击剑运动员采用了一种以过程为导向的顺序方法。多层次回归分析表明，表现的序列依赖性在比赛中会波动。贝叶斯多层次结构方程模型的结果显示，先前的表现随后会影响心理过程。尽管心理过程并不能预测下一个回合的表现，但与连败和无连胜相比，连续获胜与更高的感知控制、任务导向型应对方式以及更低的消极情感性相关。总体而言，比赛期间表现的序列依赖性是不稳定的，而心理过程在赢后赢与输后输的情节中存在显著差异。
