College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, PR China.
State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, PR China.
Sci Total Environ. 2014 Apr 15;478:80-9. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.01.070. Epub 2014 Feb 12.
By applying substance flow analysis (SFA), the paper attempts to illustrate how copper utilization pattern has changed in the anthroposphere of China from 1975 to 2010. An analytical framework is firstly established and the detailed copper cycles of the specific years 1975, 1985, 1995, 2005 and 2010 are then characterized. Major conclusions include the following: (1) Chinese copper industry has made significant progress driven by large domestic copper demand since 1970s, especially after 1990s. Also the structure of copper industry has shifted from a basic industry to a processing industry. The share of secondary copper production in total refined copper has risen from 20% in 1975 to 38% in 2010; (2) the Chinese society has experienced a rapid copper accumulation since 1990s. The annual input flow to use stage jumped from only 334 Gg (that is 0.36 kg per capita copper consumption) in 1975 to 7,916 Gg (5.90 kg per capita) in 2010; (3) a large amount of copper has to be imported to meet the huge demand, mainly involving in copper concentrate, refined copper and copper scrap. And the NIR (Net Import Ratio) of the three was 53.0%, 38.7% and 63.0% in 2010, respectively; (4) domestically produced copper scrap increased from 74.5 Gg in 1975 to 711.2 Gg in 2010. Comparing it with import scrap and domestic new scrap we found that at current stage the in-use stock is still too small to generate high quantities of copper scrap for domestic secondary copper production. (5) Major copper losses occurred through copper Mining, Refining and WM&R, with the Mining exhibited the lowest copper utilization efficiency (CUE) among the three processes, and may have the great potential for increasing copper utilization rate in China.
本文应用物质流分析（SFA）方法，试图阐述 1975 年至 2010 年期间中国人类活动系统中铜的利用模式发生了怎样的变化。首先构建了分析框架，然后详细刻画了 1975 年、1985 年、1995 年、2005 年和 2010 年的铜具体循环。主要结论包括：（1）20 世纪 70 年代以来，中国铜工业在国内巨大需求的驱动下取得了长足的进步，特别是 90 年代以后。同时，铜工业的结构也从基础工业向加工工业转变。再生铜产量占精炼铜总产量的比例从 1975 年的 20%上升到 2010 年的 38%；（2）20 世纪 90 年代以来，中国社会经历了快速的铜积累。使用阶段的年输入通量从 1975 年的仅 334 克（即人均铜消费量 0.36 千克）跃升至 2010 年的 7916 克（5.90 千克）；（3）为了满足巨大的需求，中国大量进口铜，主要涉及铜精矿、精炼铜和废铜。2010 年这三种的 NIR（净进口率）分别为 53.0%、38.7%和 63.0%；（4）国内生产的废铜从 1975 年的 74.5 克增加到 2010 年的 711.2 克。与进口废铜和国内新废铜相比，我们发现现阶段在使用的库存仍然太小，无法为国内二次铜生产产生大量废铜；（5）铜矿业、精炼业和 WM&R 过程中发生了主要的铜损耗，其中矿业的铜利用效率（CUE）最低，在中国提高铜利用率方面可能具有巨大的潜力。
