Dickinson Maria G, Orme C David L, Suttle K Blake, Mace Georgina M
1] Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College at Silwood Park, Ascot, Berkshire SL5 7PY, UK [2] Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, Exhibition Road, South Kensington, London, SW7 2AZ.
Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College at Silwood Park, Ascot, Berkshire SL5 7PY, UK.
Sci Rep. 2014 Nov 4;4:6898. doi: 10.1038/srep06898.
Predictive frameworks of climate change extinction risk generally focus on the magnitude of climate change a species is expected to experience and the potential for that species to track suitable climate. A species' risk of extinction from climate change will depend, in part, on the magnitude of climate change the species experiences, its exposure. However, exposure is only one component of risk. A species' risk of extinction will also depend on its intrinsic ability to tolerate changing climate, its sensitivity. We examine exposure and sensitivity individually for two example taxa, terrestrial amphibians and mammals. We examine how these factors are related among species and across regions and how explicit consideration of each component of risk may affect predictions of climate change impacts. We find that species' sensitivities to climate change are not congruent with their exposures. Many highly sensitive species face low exposure to climate change and many highly exposed species are relatively insensitive. Separating sensitivity from exposure reveals patterns in the causes and drivers of species' extinction risk that may not be evident solely from predictions of climate change. Our findings emphasise the importance of explicitly including sensitivity and exposure to climate change in assessments of species' extinction risk.
气候变化导致物种灭绝风险的预测框架通常关注一个物种预计会经历的气候变化幅度以及该物种追踪适宜气候的潜力。一个物种因气候变化而灭绝的风险，部分取决于该物种所经历的气候变化幅度，即其暴露程度。然而，暴露程度只是风险的一个组成部分。一个物种的灭绝风险还将取决于其耐受气候变化的内在能力，即其敏感性。我们分别考察了陆地两栖动物和哺乳动物这两个示例类群的暴露程度和敏感性。我们研究了这些因素在物种之间以及跨区域是如何相关的，以及对风险的每个组成部分进行明确考量可能如何影响对气候变化影响的预测。我们发现，物种对气候变化的敏感性与其暴露程度并不一致。许多高度敏感的物种面临的气候变化暴露程度较低，而许多高度暴露的物种相对不敏感。将敏感性与暴露程度区分开来，揭示了物种灭绝风险的成因和驱动因素中的模式，而这些模式可能仅从气候变化预测中并不明显。我们的研究结果强调了在评估物种灭绝风险时明确纳入对气候变化的敏感性和暴露程度的重要性。
