Barclay Kieron, Kolk Martin
Department of Social Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK,
Demography. 2015 Apr;52(2):613-39. doi: 10.1007/s13524-015-0377-2.
This study uses Swedish population register data to investigate the relationship between birth order and mortality at ages 30 to 69 for Swedish cohorts born between 1938 and 1960, using a within-family comparison. The main analyses are conducted with discrete-time survival analysis using a within-family comparison, and the estimates are adjusted for age, mother's age at the time of birth, and cohort. Focusing on sibships ranging in size from two to six, we find that mortality risk in adulthood increases with later birth order. The results show that the relative effect of birth order is greater among women than among men. This pattern is consistent for all the major causes of death but is particularly pronounced for mortality attributable to cancers of the respiratory system and to external causes. Further analyses in which we adjust for adult socioeconomic status and adult educational attainment suggest that social pathways only mediate the relationship between birth order and mortality risk in adulthood to a limited degree.
本研究利用瑞典人口登记数据，通过家庭内部比较，调查1938年至1960年出生的瑞典队列在30至69岁时出生顺序与死亡率之间的关系。主要分析采用离散时间生存分析并进行家庭内部比较，估计值针对年龄、母亲生育时的年龄和队列进行了调整。聚焦于规模从2至6人的同胞群体，我们发现成年期的死亡风险会随着出生顺序靠后而增加。结果表明，出生顺序对女性的相对影响大于男性。这种模式在所有主要死因中都一致，但在呼吸系统癌症和外部原因导致的死亡方面尤为明显。我们进一步调整了成人社会经济地位和成人教育程度进行分析，结果表明社会途径仅在有限程度上介导了出生顺序与成年期死亡风险之间的关系。
