Hartemink Nienke, Cianci Daniela, Reiter Paul
1 Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University , Utrecht, The Netherlands .
Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis. 2015 Mar;15(3):215-7. doi: 10.1089/vbz.2014.1684.
Mathematical modeling and notably the basic reproduction number R0 have become popular tools for the description of vector-borne disease dynamics. We compare two widely used methods to calculate the probability of a vector to survive the extrinsic incubation period. The two methods are based on different assumptions for the duration of the extrinsic incubation period; one method assumes a fixed period and the other method assumes a fixed daily rate of becoming infectious. We conclude that the outcomes differ substantially between the methods when the average life span of the vector is short compared to the extrinsic incubation period.
数学建模，尤其是基本再生数R0，已成为描述媒介传播疾病动态的常用工具。我们比较了两种广泛使用的方法来计算媒介在外部潜伏期存活的概率。这两种方法基于对外部潜伏期持续时间的不同假设；一种方法假设为固定时长，另一种方法假设为固定的每日感染率。我们得出结论，当媒介的平均寿命与外部潜伏期相比很短时，两种方法的结果存在显著差异。
