纽约市麻疹动态的百年变迁
A century of transitions in New York City's measles dynamics.
作者信息
Hempel Karsten, Earn David J D
机构信息
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, McMaster University, 1280 Main Street West, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada L8S 4K1
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, McMaster University, 1280 Main Street West, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada L8S 4K1.
出版信息
J R Soc Interface. 2015 May 6;12(106). doi: 10.1098/rsif.2015.0024.
Abstract
Infectious diseases spreading in a human population occasionally exhibit sudden transitions in their qualitative dynamics. Previous work has successfully predicted such transitions in New York City's historical measles incidence using the seasonally forced susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model. This work relied on a dataset spanning 45 years (1928-1973), which we have extended to 93 years (1891-1984). We identify additional dynamical transitions in the longer dataset and successfully explain them by analysing attractors and transients of the same mechanistic epidemiological model.
摘要
在人群中传播的传染病偶尔会在其定性动态方面表现出突然转变。此前的研究利用季节性强迫的易感-感染-康复（SIR）模型成功预测了纽约市历史麻疹发病率的此类转变。这项研究依赖于一个跨度为45年（1928 - 1973年）的数据集，我们已将其扩展至93年（1891 - 1984年）。我们在更长的数据集里识别出了更多的动态转变，并通过分析同一机械流行病学模型的吸引子和瞬态成功地对其进行了解释。
相似文献
1
A century of transitions in New York City's measles dynamics.纽约市麻疹动态的百年变迁
J R Soc Interface. 2015 May 6;12(106). doi: 10.1098/rsif.2015.0024.
2
An ongoing measles outbreak linked to a suspected imported case, Ireland, April to June 2016.2016 年 4 月至 6 月，爱尔兰发生一起与疑似输入性病例相关的麻疹暴发疫情。
Euro Surveill. 2016 Jul 7;21(27). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.27.30277.
3
[Measles in Germany: An Epidemiological Analysis and First Measures for Containment].[德国麻疹：流行病学分析与初步防控措施]
Dtsch Med Wochenschr. 2017 Nov;142(23):1767-1772. doi: 10.1055/s-0043-117973. Epub 2017 Nov 16.
4
Outbreak of measles in Belarus, January-June 2006.2006年1月至6月白俄罗斯麻疹疫情
Euro Surveill. 2006 Jul 27;11(7):E060727.3. doi: 10.2807/esw.11.30.03011-en.
5
Measles outbreak in the Ukraine, 2005-2006.2005 - 2006年乌克兰麻疹疫情
Euro Surveill. 2006 Mar 9;11(3):E060309.1. doi: 10.2807/esw.11.10.02918-en.
6
Current measles outbreak in Serbia: a preliminary report.塞尔维亚当前的麻疹疫情：初步报告。
Euro Surveill. 2007 Mar 15;12(3):E070315.2. doi: 10.2807/esw.12.11.03155-en.
7
Progress in global control and regional elimination of measles, 2000–2011.2000 - 2011年全球麻疹控制及区域消除进展
Wkly Epidemiol Rec. 2013 Jan 18;88(3):29-36.
8
Ongoing measles outbreak in Elche, Spain, 29 January to 9 March 2012.2012 年 1 月 29 日至 3 月 9 日西班牙埃尔切持续麻疹疫情。
Euro Surveill. 2012 Mar 15;17(11):20119.
9
Diphtheria, pertussis, and measles in Portugal before and after mass vaccination: a time series analysis.葡萄牙大规模疫苗接种前后的白喉、百日咳和麻疹：一项时间序列分析
Eur J Epidemiol. 1999 Oct;15(9):791-8. doi: 10.1023/a:1007615513441.
10
Public Health Consequences of a 2013 Measles Outbreak in New York City.2013 年纽约市麻疹爆发的公共卫生后果。
JAMA Pediatr. 2018 Sep 1;172(9):811-817. doi: 10.1001/jamapediatrics.2018.1024.
引用本文的文献
1
Comparative SIR/SEIR modeling of the Antonine Plague in Rome.罗马安东尼瘟疫的SIR/SEIR模型比较研究
PLoS One. 2025 Feb 13;20(2):e0313684. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0313684. eCollection 2025.
2
The probability of epidemic burnout in the stochastic SIR model with vital dynamics.具有人口动态的随机SIR模型中出现流行倦怠的概率。
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2024 Jan 30;121(5):e2313708120. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2313708120. Epub 2024 Jan 26.
3
Transient disease dynamics across ecological scales.跨生态尺度的瞬态疾病动态
Theor Ecol. 2021;14(4):625-640. doi: 10.1007/s12080-021-00514-w. Epub 2021 May 27.
4
Patterns of smallpox mortality in London, England, over three centuries.三个世纪以来英国伦敦天花死亡率的变化模式。
PLoS Biol. 2020 Dec 21;18(12):e3000506. doi: 10.1371/journal.pbio.3000506. eCollection 2020 Dec.
5
How can contemporary climate research help understand epidemic dynamics? Ensemble approach and snapshot attractors.当代气候研究如何帮助理解传染病动力学？集合方法和快照吸引子。
J R Soc Interface. 2020 Dec;17(173):20200648. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2020.0648. Epub 2020 Dec 9.
6
On the Entropy of Events under Eventually Global Inflated or Deflated Probability Constraints. Application to the Supervision of Epidemic Models under Vaccination Controls.关于最终全局膨胀或收缩概率约束下事件的熵。在疫苗接种控制下对流行病模型的监督中的应用。
Entropy (Basel). 2020 Feb 29;22(3):284. doi: 10.3390/e22030284.
7
Fast estimation of time-varying infectious disease transmission rates.快速估计时变传染病传播率。
PLoS Comput Biol. 2020 Sep 21;16(9):e1008124. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008124. eCollection 2020 Sep.
8
Coexisting attractors in the context of cross-scale population dynamics: measles in London as a case study.跨尺度人口动态背景下的共存吸引子：以伦敦麻疹为例。
Proc Biol Sci. 2020 Apr 29;287(1925):20191510. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2019.1510. Epub 2020 Apr 22.
9
Long-term dynamics of measles in London: Titrating the impact of wars, the 1918 pandemic, and vaccination.伦敦麻疹的长期动态：权衡战争、1918 年大流行和疫苗接种的影响。
PLoS Comput Biol. 2019 Sep 12;15(9):e1007305. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007305. eCollection 2019 Sep.
10
Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing.从根本不同的季节性驱动形式中预测流行病模式的不变性。
J R Soc Interface. 2019 Jul 26;16(156):20190202. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2019.0202. Epub 2019 Jul 31.
本文引用的文献
1
Fast estimation of time-varying infectious disease transmission rates.快速估计时变传染病传播率。
PLoS Comput Biol. 2020 Sep 21;16(9):e1008124. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008124. eCollection 2020 Sep.
2
Human birth seasonality: latitudinal gradient and interplay with childhood disease dynamics.人类出生季节性：纬度梯度与儿童疾病动态的相互作用。
Proc Biol Sci. 2014 Apr 2;281(1783):20132438. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2013.2438. Print 2014 May 22.
3
Effects of the infectious period distribution on predicted transitions in childhood disease dynamics.传染病潜伏期分布对儿童疾病动力学预测转变的影响。
J R Soc Interface. 2013 May 15;10(84):20130098. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2013.0098. Print 2013 Jul 6.
4
Multifractal signatures of infectious diseases.传染病的多重分形特征。
J R Soc Interface. 2012 Sep 7;9(74):2167-80. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2011.0886. Epub 2012 Mar 22.
5
Effects of school closure on incidence of pandemic influenza in Alberta, Canada.学校关闭对加拿大阿尔伯塔省大流行性流感发病率的影响。
Ann Intern Med. 2012 Feb 7;156(3):173-81. doi: 10.7326/0003-4819-156-3-201202070-00005.
6
Herald waves of cholera in nineteenth century London.预示着 19 世纪伦敦霍乱的浪潮。
J R Soc Interface. 2011 May 6;8(58):756-60. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2010.0494. Epub 2010 Dec 1.
7
Sustained oscillations for density dependent Markov processes.密度依赖马尔可夫过程的持续振荡
J Math Biol. 2011 Sep;63(3):433-57. doi: 10.1007/s00285-010-0376-2. Epub 2010 Nov 13.
8
Stochastic amplification in an epidemic model with seasonal forcing.具有季节强迫的传染病模型中的随机放大。
J Theor Biol. 2010 Nov 7;267(1):85-94. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2010.08.014. Epub 2010 Aug 17.
9
Epidemic threshold conditions for seasonally forced seir models.季节性强制 SEIR 模型的流行病阈值条件。
Math Biosci Eng. 2006 Jan;3(1):161-72. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2006.3.161.
10
Stochasticity in staged models of epidemics: quantifying the dynamics of whooping cough.传染病分阶段模型中的随机性：量化百日咳的动力学。
J R Soc Interface. 2010 Aug 6;7(49):1219-27. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2009.0514. Epub 2010 Feb 17.
Zotero 插件