National Office for Cancer Prevention and Control, National Cancer Center, Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, No.17, Pan-Jia-Yuan South Lane, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100021, China.
Department of Surgical Oncology, Beijing Children's Hospital, Capital Medical University, No 56, Li-Shi South Road, Xicheng District, Beijing 1000056, China; Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Beijing, China.
Cancer Lett. 2015 Jul 28;363(2):176-80. doi: 10.1016/j.canlet.2015.04.021. Epub 2015 Apr 24.
The objective of this study is to assess Chinese nationwide incidence, mortality and survival of childhood cancers, which has not been reported. Data from 145 Chinese Cancer Registries, which covered 158,403,248 populations, were pooled for analyses. Cancer patients were diagnosed during 2000-2010 at age 0-14 years. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates and relative survival rates were calculated. Survival was estimated by the classic cohort approach. New cancer cases were projected using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Overall age-standardized incidence was 87.1 per million and age-standardized mortality was 36.3 per million. We found a statistically significant increase in incidence rate annually with 2.8% (95% CI: 1.1-4.6%, p < 0.05), a non-significant decreased mortality, and overall 5-year relative survival reaching 71.9% (95% CI: 69.4-77.1%). Projected new cases in 2015 are 22,875. We provide, for the first time, Chinese nationwide incidence, mortality and their temporal trends, and relative survival rates during the period of 2003-2005 for childhood cancer, which will contribute to a better understanding of the etiology and prevention of childhood cancers. The increasing trend of incidence rate and low 5-year relative survival rate suggest that more efforts for prevention and control of childhood cancers shall be invested in China.
本研究旨在评估中国儿童癌症的全国发病率、死亡率和生存率，目前尚未有相关报道。我们汇总了来自 145 个中国癌症登记处的数据，覆盖了 158403248 人。分析对象为 2000 年至 2010 年期间诊断为 0-14 岁儿童癌症的患者。采用年龄标准化发病率、死亡率和相对生存率进行评估。通过经典队列方法估计生存率。使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测新发病例。总体年龄标准化发病率为 87.1/100 万，年龄标准化死亡率为 36.3/100 万。我们发现发病率每年呈 2.8%的统计学显著增长（95%CI：1.1-4.6%，p<0.05），死亡率无显著下降，总体 5 年相对生存率达到 71.9%（95%CI：69.4-77.1%）。预计 2015 年新增病例数为 22875 例。本研究首次提供了中国儿童癌症的全国发病率、死亡率及其时间趋势，以及 2003-2005 年期间的相对生存率数据，有助于更好地了解儿童癌症的病因和预防措施。发病率的上升趋势和较低的 5 年相对生存率表明，中国需要加大对儿童癌症的防控力度。
