Sinayev Aleksandr, Peters Ellen
Department of Psychology, The Ohio State University Columbus, OH, USA.
Front Psychol. 2015 May 7;6:532. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2015.00532. eCollection 2015.
Scores on the three-item Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) have been linked with dual-system theory and normative decision making (Frederick, 2005). In particular, the CRT is thought to measure monitoring of System 1 intuitions such that, if cognitive reflection is high enough, intuitive errors will be detected and the problem will be solved. However, CRT items also require numeric ability to be answered correctly and it is unclear how much numeric ability vs. cognitive reflection contributes to better decision making. In two studies, CRT responses were used to calculate Cognitive Reflection and numeric ability; a numeracy scale was also administered. Numeric ability, measured on the CRT or the numeracy scale, accounted for the CRT's ability to predict more normative decisions (a subscale of decision-making competence, incentivized measures of impatient and risk-averse choice, and self-reported financial outcomes); Cognitive Reflection contributed no independent predictive power. Results were similar whether the two abilities were modeled (Study 1) or calculated using proportions (Studies 1 and 2). These findings demonstrate numeric ability as a robust predictor of superior decision making across multiple tasks and outcomes. They also indicate that correlations of decision performance with the CRT are insufficient evidence to implicate overriding intuitions in the decision-making biases and outcomes we examined. Numeric ability appears to be the key mechanism instead.
三项认知反思测试（CRT）的得分与双系统理论和规范决策相关联（弗雷德里克，2005年）。具体而言，CRT被认为是用于衡量对系统1直觉的监控，即如果认知反思足够高，就能检测到直觉错误并解决问题。然而，CRT题目也需要具备数字能力才能正确作答，目前尚不清楚数字能力与认知反思在多大程度上有助于做出更好的决策。在两项研究中，通过CRT的回答来计算认知反思和数字能力；同时还施测了一个数字素养量表。无论是通过CRT还是数字素养量表测量的数字能力，都解释了CRT预测更规范决策的能力（决策能力的一个子量表、对不耐烦和风险厌恶选择的激励性测量以及自我报告的财务结果）；认知反思并未贡献独立的预测力。无论这两种能力是进行建模（研究1）还是使用比例计算（研究1和研究2），结果都是相似的。这些发现表明，数字能力是跨多个任务和结果的卓越决策的有力预测指标。它们还表明，决策表现与CRT的相关性不足以证明在我们所研究的决策偏差和结果中存在直觉的主导作用。相反，数字能力似乎才是关键机制。
