Whiteman David C, Webb Penelope M, Green Adele C, Neale Rachel E, Fritschi Lin, Bain Christopher J, Parkin D Max, Wilson Louise F, Olsen Catherine M, Nagle Christina M, Pandeya Nirmala, Jordan Susan J, Antonsson Annika, Kendall Bradley J, Hughes Maria Celia B, Ibiebele Torukiri I, Miura Kyoko, Peters Susan, Carey Renee N
QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Queensland.
School of Public Health, The University of Queensland.
Aust N Z J Public Health. 2015 Oct;39(5):477-84. doi: 10.1111/1753-6405.12471.
To estimate the numbers and proportions of cancers occurring in Australia in 2010 attributable to modifiable causal factors.
We estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF) of cancers associated with exposure to 13 causal factors using standard formulae incorporating exposure prevalence and relative risk data. We also calculated the potential impact of changing exposure to some factors.
A total of 32% of all cancers diagnosed in Australia in 2010 (excluding keratinocyte cancers) were attributable to the 13 factors assessed (men 33%; women 31%). Leading factors were tobacco smoke (PAF all cancers: 13.4%), solar radiation (6.2%), inadequate diet (6.1%) and overweight/obesity (3.4%). Factors conferring highest PAFs differed by sex: highest PAFs for men were tobacco smoke (15.8%), solar radiation (7.1%) and alcohol (3.0%); while highest PAFs for women were tobacco smoke (10.1%), solar radiation (5.0%) and overweight/obesity (4.5%). Sites with the highest counts of potentially preventable cancers were lung (8,569), colorectal (7,404), melanoma of the skin (7,220) and breast (3,233).
At least one in three cancers in Australia is attributable to exposure to known modifiable factors.
Up to 37,000 cancers could be prevented in Australia each year if the population avoided exposure to 13 common factors known or strongly suspected to cause cancer.
估算2010年澳大利亚因可改变的致病因素而发生的癌症数量及比例。
我们使用包含暴露患病率和相对风险数据的标准公式，估算了与13种致病因素暴露相关的癌症人群归因分数（PAF）。我们还计算了改变某些因素暴露的潜在影响。
2010年在澳大利亚诊断出的所有癌症（不包括角质形成细胞癌）中，共有32%可归因于所评估的13种因素（男性为33%；女性为31%）。主要因素包括烟草烟雾（PAF：所有癌症的13.4%）、太阳辐射（6.2%）、饮食不足（6.1%）和超重/肥胖（3.4%）。导致最高PAF的因素因性别而异：男性的最高PAF是烟草烟雾（15.8%）、太阳辐射（7.1%）和酒精（3.0%）；而女性的最高PAF是烟草烟雾（10.1%）、太阳辐射（5.0%）和超重/肥胖（4.5%）。潜在可预防癌症数量最多的部位是肺癌（8569例）、结直肠癌（7404例）、皮肤黑色素瘤（7220例）和乳腺癌（3233例）。
在澳大利亚，至少三分之一的癌症可归因于已知的可改变因素暴露。
如果澳大利亚人群避免暴露于13种已知或强烈怀疑会致癌的常见因素，每年可预防多达37000例癌症。
