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1918-1919 年流感大流行的一个被忽视的夏季浪潮:来自美国和挪威家庭调查的证据。

A Missed Summer Wave of the 1918-1919 Influenza Pandemic: Evidence From Household Surveys in the United States and Norway.

机构信息

Work Research Institute; Oslo and Akershus University College of Applied Sciences.

Department of Bacteriology and Immunology, Division of Environmental Medicine and Infectious Disease Control , Norwegian Institute of Public Health.

出版信息

Open Forum Infect Dis. 2016 Feb 17;3(1):ofw040. doi: 10.1093/ofid/ofw040. eCollection 2016 Jan.

Abstract

Background.  Reanalysis of influenza survey data from 1918 to 1919 was done to obtain new insights into the geographic and host factors responsible for the various waves. Methods.  We analyzed the age- and sex-specific influenza morbidity, fatality, and mortality for the city of Baltimore and smaller towns and rural areas of Maryland and the city of Bergen (Norway), using survey data. The Maryland surveys captured the 1918 fall wave, whereas the Bergen survey captured 3 waves during 1918-1919. Results.  Morbidity in rural areas of Maryland was higher than in the city of Baltimore during the fall of 1918, that was almost equal to that in Bergen during the summer of 1918. In Bergen, the morbidity in the fall was only half of that in the summer, with more females than males just above the age of 20 falling ill, as seen in both regions of Maryland. In contrast, more males than females fell ill during the summer wave in Bergen. Individuals <40 years had the highest morbidity, whereas school-aged children had the lowest fatality and mortality. Conclusion.  A previously unrecognized pandemic summer wave may have hit the 2 regions of Maryland in 1918.

摘要

背景

对 1918 年至 1919 年的流感调查数据进行重新分析,以深入了解导致不同波次的地理和宿主因素。

方法

我们使用调查数据分析了马里兰州巴尔的摩市以及较小城镇和农村地区以及挪威卑尔根市的年龄和性别特异性流感发病率、死亡率和病死率。马里兰州的调查记录了 1918 年秋季的流感波次,而卑尔根的调查记录了 1918-1919 年期间的 3 个波次。

结果

1918 年秋季,马里兰州农村地区的发病率高于巴尔的摩市,与 1918 年夏季的卑尔根市发病率相当。在卑尔根,秋季的发病率仅是夏季的一半,在马里兰州的两个地区,都有超过 20 岁的女性比男性更容易患病。相比之下,在卑尔根的夏季波次中,男性比女性更容易患病。<40 岁的人群发病率最高,而学龄儿童的死亡率和病死率最低。

结论

1918 年,马里兰州的这两个地区可能经历了一波此前未被识别的大流行夏季流感波次。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/559b/4800462/60c10f197819/ofw04001.jpg

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