Oliveira-Santos M, Santos J A, Soares J, Dias A, Quaresma M
Department of Psychiatry and Mental Health, Centro Hospitalar de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro EPE, CHTMAD, Vila Real, Portugal.
Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-environmental and Biological Sciences, CITAB, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, UTAD, Vila Real, Portugal.
Int J Biometeorol. 2016 Dec;60(12):1807-1817. doi: 10.1007/s00484-016-1168-1. Epub 2016 Apr 9.
Acute viral bronchiolitis is a common cause for infant hospital admissions. Of all etiological agents, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is commonly the most frequent. The present study assesses relationships between atmospheric factors and RSV infections in under 3-year-old patients admitted to the Inpatient Paediatric Service of Vila Real (North of Portugal). For this purpose, (1) clinical files of children admitted with a diagnosis of acute bronchiolitis from September 2005 to December 2015 (>10 years) were scrutinised and (2) local daily temperature/precipitation series, as well as six weather types controlling meteorological conditions in Portugal, were used. Fifty-five percent of all 770 admitted children were effectively infected with a given virus, whilst 48 % (367) were RSV+, i.e. 87 % of virus-infected children were RSV+. The bulk of incidence is verified in the first year of age (82 %, 302), slightly higher in males. RSV outbreaks are typically from December to March, but important inter-annual variability is found in both magnitude and shape. Although no clear connections were found between monthly temperatures/precipitation and RSV outbreaks apart from seasonality, a linkage to wintertime cold spells is apparent on a daily basis. Anomalously low minimum temperatures from the day of admittance back to 10 days before are observed. This relationship is supported by anomalously high occurrences of the E and AA weather types over the same period, which usually trigger dry and cold weather. These findings highlight some predictability in the RSV occurrences, revealing potential for modelling and risk assessments.
急性病毒性细支气管炎是婴儿住院的常见原因。在所有病原体中，呼吸道合胞病毒（RSV）通常最为常见。本研究评估了葡萄牙北部维拉雷亚尔儿科住院部收治的3岁以下患者中大气因素与RSV感染之间的关系。为此，（1）仔细审查了2005年9月至2015年12月（超过10年）诊断为急性细支气管炎的儿童临床档案，（2）使用了当地每日温度/降水序列以及控制葡萄牙气象条件的六种天气类型。在所有770名入院儿童中，55%确实感染了某种特定病毒，而48%（367名）为RSV阳性，即87%的病毒感染儿童为RSV阳性。发病率主要在一岁时得到证实（82%，302例），男性略高。RSV爆发通常发生在12月至3月，但在规模和形式上都存在重要的年际变化。尽管除了季节性之外，未发现月温度/降水与RSV爆发之间有明确联系，但在每日基础上，与冬季寒潮的联系很明显。观察到从入院当天到入院前10天的异常低温。同期E型和AA型天气异常高发支持了这种关系，这两种天气通常会引发干燥和寒冷天气。这些发现突出了RSV发生的一些可预测性，揭示了建模和风险评估的潜力。
