Rojas Diana Patricia, Dean Natalie E, Yang Yang, Kenah Eben, Quintero Juliana, Tomasi Simon, Ramirez Erika Lorena, Kelly Yendi, Castro Carolina, Carrasquilla Gabriel, Halloran M Elizabeth, Longini Ira M
Department of Epidemiology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States.
Euro Surveill. 2016 Jul 14;21(28). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.28.30283.
Transmission of Zika virus (ZIKV) was first detected in Colombia in September 2015. As of April 2016, Colombia had reported over 65,000 cases of Zika virus disease (ZVD). We analysed daily surveillance data of ZVD cases reported to the health authorities of San Andres and Girardot, Colombia, between September 2015 and January 2016. ZVD was laboratory-confirmed by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) in the serum of acute cases within five days of symptom onset. We use daily incidence data to estimate the basic reproductive number (R0) in each population. We identified 928 and 1,936 reported ZVD cases from San Andres and Girardot, respectively. The overall attack rate for reported ZVD was 12.13 cases per 1,000 residents of San Andres and 18.43 cases per 1,000 residents of Girardot. Attack rates were significantly higher in females in both municipalities (p < 0.001). Cases occurred in all age groups with highest rates in 20 to 49 year-olds. The estimated R0 for the Zika outbreak was 1.41 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.15-1.74) in San Andres and 4.61 (95% CI: 4.11-5.16) in Girardot. Transmission of ZIKV is ongoing in the Americas. The estimated R0 from Colombia supports the observed rapid spread.
2015年9月,哥伦比亚首次检测到寨卡病毒(ZIKV)传播。截至2016年4月,哥伦比亚已报告超过65000例寨卡病毒病(ZVD)病例。我们分析了2015年9月至2016年1月期间向哥伦比亚圣安德烈斯和吉拉尔多卫生当局报告的ZVD病例的每日监测数据。ZVD通过逆转录聚合酶链反应(RT-PCR)在症状出现后五天内急性病例的血清中得到实验室确诊。我们使用每日发病率数据来估计每个群体的基本繁殖数(R0)。我们分别从圣安德烈斯和吉拉尔多确定了928例和1936例报告的ZVD病例。报告的ZVD总体发病率为圣安德烈斯每1000名居民中有12.13例,吉拉尔多每1000名居民中有18.43例。两个城市女性的发病率均显著更高(p < 0.001)。所有年龄组均有病例发生,20至49岁年龄组发病率最高。寨卡疫情的估计R0在圣安德烈斯为1.41(95%置信区间(CI):1.15 - 1.74),在吉拉尔多为4.61(95%CI:4.11 - 5.16)。ZIKV在美洲仍在传播。来自哥伦比亚的估计R0支持了所观察到的快速传播情况。