Marynak Kristy L, Xu Xin, Wang Xu, Holmes Carissa Baker, Tynan Michael A, Pechacek Terry
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Office on Smoking and Health, Atlanta, GA.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Office on Smoking and Health, Atlanta, GA; Oregon Health Authority, Public Health Division, Office of the State Public Health Director, Portland, OR.
Public Health Rep. 2016 Jul-Aug;131(4):536-43. doi: 10.1177/0033354916662211.
The average retail price per pack of cigarettes is less than $6, which is substantially lower than the $10 per-pack target established in 2014 by the Surgeon General to reduce the smoking rate. We estimated the impact of three cigarette pricing scenarios on smoking prevalence among teens aged 12-17 years, young adults aged 18-25 years, and adults aged ≥26 years, by state: (1) $0.94 federal tax increase on cigarettes, as proposed in the fiscal year 2017 President's budget; (2) $10 per-pack retail price, allowing discounts; and (3) $10 per-pack retail price, eliminating discounts. We conducted Monte Carlo simulations to generate point estimates of reductions in cigarette smoking prevalence by state. We found that each price scenario would substantially reduce cigarette smoking prevalence. A $10 per-pack retail price eliminating discounts could result in 637,270 fewer smokers aged 12-17 years; 4,186,954 fewer smokers aged 18-25 years; and 7,722,460 fewer smokers aged ≥26 years. Raising cigarette prices and eliminating discounts could substantially reduce cigarette smoking prevalence as well as smoking-related death and disease.
每包香烟的平均零售价不到6美元，这大大低于美国卫生局局长在2014年设定的每包10美元的目标，该目标旨在降低吸烟率。我们按州估计了三种香烟定价方案对12至17岁青少年、18至25岁年轻人以及26岁及以上成年人吸烟率的影响：（1）按照2017财年总统预算提案，每包香烟联邦税提高0.94美元；（2）每包零售价10美元，允许打折；（3）每包零售价10美元，取消折扣。我们进行了蒙特卡洛模拟，以得出各州吸烟率下降的点估计值。我们发现，每种定价方案都会大幅降低吸烟率。每包零售价10美元且取消折扣可能会使12至17岁的吸烟者减少637,270人；18至25岁的吸烟者减少4,186,954人；26岁及以上的吸烟者减少7,722,460人。提高香烟价格并取消折扣可以大幅降低吸烟率以及与吸烟相关的死亡和疾病。
