Berry Kevin, Finnoff David, Horan Richard D, Shogren Jason F
University of Wyoming, Department of Economics and Finance, 1000 E University Avenue Laramie, Wyoming 82071. Finnoff) (307)766-5430 (Shogren).
Department of Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics Michigan State University East Lansing, MI 48824-1039.
J Econ Dyn Control. 2015 Feb;51:166-179. doi: 10.1016/j.jedc.2014.09.014. Epub 2014 Oct 2.
There is a growing concern that risks of disease outbreak and pandemics are increasing over time. We consider optimal investments in prevention before an outbreak using an endogenous risk approach within an optimal control setting. Using the threat of pandemic influenza as an illustrative example, we demonstrate that prevention expenditures are relatively small in comparison to the potential losses facing the USA, and these expenditures need to be flexible and responsive to changes in background risk. Failure to adjust these expenditures to changes in background risk poses a significant threat to social welfare into the future.
人们越来越担心，随着时间的推移，疾病爆发和大流行的风险在增加。我们在最优控制框架内，使用内生风险方法来考虑疫情爆发前预防方面的最优投资。以甲型H1N1流感大流行的威胁为例，我们证明，与美国面临的潜在损失相比，预防支出相对较小，而且这些支出需要灵活且能应对背景风险的变化。未能根据背景风险的变化调整这些支出，会对未来的社会福利构成重大威胁。
