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通过印度锡金喜马拉雅地区的科学信号验证当地社区的气候认知。

Climate perceptions of local communities validated through scientific signals in Sikkim Himalaya, India.

作者信息

Sharma R K, Shrestha D G

机构信息

State Climate Change Cell, Sikkim State Council of Science and Technology, Vigyan Bhawan, Deorali, Gangtok, Sikkim, 737102, India.

出版信息

Environ Monit Assess. 2016 Oct;188(10):578. doi: 10.1007/s10661-016-5582-y. Epub 2016 Sep 20.

DOI:10.1007/s10661-016-5582-y
PMID:27650439
Abstract

Sikkim, a tiny Himalayan state situated in the north-eastern region of India, records limited research on the climate change. Understanding the changes in climate based on the perceptions of local communities can provide important insights for the preparedness against the unprecedented consequences of climate change. A total of 228 households in 12 different villages of Sikkim, India, were interviewed using eight climate change indicators. The results from the public opinions showed a significant increase in temperature compared to a decade earlier, winters are getting warmer, water springs are drying up, change in concept of spring-water recharge (locally known as Mul Phutnu), changes in spring season, low crop yields, incidences of mosquitoes during winter, and decrease in rainfall in last 10 years. In addition, study also showed significant positive correlations of increase in temperature with other climate change indicators viz. spring-water recharge concept (R (2) = 0.893), warmer winter (R (2) = 0.839), drying up of water springs (R (2) = 0.76), changes in spring season (R (2) = 0.68), low crop yields (R (2) = 0.68), decrease in rainfall (R (2) = 0.63), and incidences of mosquitoes in winter (R (2) = 0.50). The air temperature for two meteorological stations of Sikkim indicated statistically significant increasing trend in mean minimum temperature and mean minimum winter temperature (DJF). The observed climate change is consistent with the people perceptions. This information can help in planning specific adaptation strategies to cope with the impacts of climate change by framing village-level action plan.

摘要

锡金是印度东北部喜马拉雅地区的一个小邦,有关气候变化的研究记录有限。基于当地社区的认知来了解气候变化,可为应对气候变化带来的前所未有的后果提供重要见解。印度锡金邦12个不同村庄的228户家庭接受了使用八项气候变化指标的访谈。民意调查结果显示,与十年前相比,气温显著上升,冬季变暖,泉水干涸,泉水补给概念(当地称为Mul Phutnu)发生变化,春季变化,作物产量低,冬季蚊虫滋生,以及过去10年降雨量减少。此外,研究还显示气温升高与其他气候变化指标之间存在显著正相关,即泉水补给概念(R(2)=0.893)、暖冬(R(2)=0.839)、泉水干涸(R(2)=0.76)、春季变化(R(2)=0.68)、作物产量低(R(2)=0.68)、降雨量减少(R(2)=0.63)和冬季蚊虫滋生(R(2)=0.50)。锡金两个气象站的气温显示,平均最低气温和冬季平均最低气温(12月、1月、2月)呈统计上显著的上升趋势。观测到的气候变化与人们的认知一致。这些信息有助于通过制定村级行动计划来规划具体的适应策略,以应对气候变化的影响。

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