DeJoy D M
Department of Health Promotion and Behavior, University of Georgia, Athens 30602.
Accid Anal Prev. 1989 Aug;21(4):333-40. doi: 10.1016/0001-4575(89)90024-9.
Research suggests that people are excessively and unrealistically optimistic when judging their driving competency and accident risk. In this study, college-age drivers compared their risk of being involved in a variety of described traffic accidents relative to their peers. They also rated each of the accidents along a number of dimensions hypothesized as being related to optimism. In addition, subjects provided global estimates of their driving safety, skill, and accident likelihood. Significant optimism was evident for both the accidents and the global ratings. Optimism increased with driving experience and marginally with age. Those with more driving experience considered human factors to be more important in accident causation; those assigning more importance to human factors also rated themselves as more skillful drivers. For the specific accidents, perceived controllability was a strong predictor of optimism. The findings for controllability are interpreted in terms of other recent data and hypothesized explanations of the optimism bias. In general, it appears that optimism arises because people persistently overestimate the degree of control that they have over events.
研究表明，人们在判断自己的驾驶能力和事故风险时过度且不切实际地乐观。在这项研究中，大学年龄的驾驶员将自己遭遇各种所述交通事故的风险与同龄人进行了比较。他们还根据一些假设与乐观主义相关的维度对每起事故进行了评级。此外，受试者对自己的驾驶安全性、技能和事故可能性进行了总体评估。在事故和总体评级方面，明显存在显著的乐观情绪。乐观情绪随着驾驶经验的增加而增加，随年龄略有增加。驾驶经验更丰富的人认为人为因素在事故成因中更为重要；那些更重视人为因素的人也将自己评为驾驶技术更熟练的司机。对于具体事故，感知到的可控性是乐观情绪的一个有力预测指标。根据最近的其他数据和对乐观偏差的假设解释对可控性的研究结果进行了解释。总体而言，乐观情绪的出现似乎是因为人们持续高估了自己对事件的控制程度。
