Tong Shilu, Berry Helen L, Ebi Kristie, Bambrick Hilary, Hu Wenbiao, Green Donna, Hanna Elizabeth, Wang Zhiqiang, Butler Colin D
School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Kelvin Grove, Queensland 4159, Australia .
Faculty of Health, University of Canberra, Canberra, Australia .
Bull World Health Organ. 2016 Oct 1;94(10):759-765. doi: 10.2471/BLT.15.167031. Epub 2016 Jul 13.
Anthropogenic climate change appears to be increasing the frequency, duration and intensity of extreme weather events. Such events have already had substantial impacts on socioeconomic development and population health. Climate change's most profound impacts are likely to be on food, health systems and water. This paper explores how climate change will affect food, human health and water in China. Projections indicate that the overall effects of climate change, land conversion and reduced water availability could reduce Chinese food production substantially - although uncertainty is inevitable in such projections. Climate change will probably have substantial impacts on water resources - e.g. changes in rainfall patterns and increases in the frequencies of droughts and floods in some areas of China. Such impacts would undoubtedly threaten population health and well-being in many communities. In the short-term, population health in China is likely to be adversely affected by increases in air temperatures and pollution. In the medium to long term, however, the indirect impacts of climate change - e.g. changes in the availability of food, shelter and water, decreased mental health and well-being and changes in the distribution and seasonality of infectious diseases - are likely to grow in importance. The potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change can only be avoided if all countries work together towards a substantial reduction in the emission of so-called greenhouse gases and a substantial increase in the global population's resilience to the risks of climate variability and change.
人为气候变化似乎正在增加极端天气事件的频率、持续时间和强度。此类事件已经对社会经济发展和人口健康产生了重大影响。气候变化最深远的影响可能体现在粮食、卫生系统和水资源方面。本文探讨气候变化将如何影响中国的粮食、人类健康和水资源。预测表明,气候变化、土地转换和可用水资源减少的综合影响可能会大幅降低中国的粮食产量——尽管此类预测中存在不确定性是不可避免的。气候变化可能会对水资源产生重大影响——例如,中国部分地区降雨模式的变化以及干旱和洪水发生频率的增加。此类影响无疑会威胁到许多社区的人口健康和福祉。短期内,中国的人口健康可能会受到气温上升和污染加剧的不利影响。然而,从中长期来看,气候变化的间接影响——例如食物、住所和水的可得性变化、心理健康和福祉下降以及传染病分布和季节性的变化——可能会变得更加重要。只有所有国家共同努力大幅减少所谓温室气体的排放,并大幅提高全球人口应对气候多变性和变化风险的复原力,才能避免气候变化可能带来的灾难性后果。