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对居住在坎布里亚郡西部西斯科尔的母亲所生儿童的随访研究(出生队列)。

Follow up study of children born to mothers resident in Seascale, West Cumbria (birth cohort).

作者信息

Gardner M J, Hall A J, Downes S, Terrell J D

机构信息

MRC Environmental Epidemiology Unit (University of Southampton), Southampton General Hospital.

出版信息

Br Med J (Clin Res Ed). 1987 Oct 3;295(6602):822-7. doi: 10.1136/bmj.295.6602.822.

Abstract

Records on 1068 children who were born to mothers resident in Seascale Civil Parish during 1950-83 were studied. There was a large degree of mobility among the families, and nearly half of the children did not subsequently attend the main local school. Use of the National Health Service Central Register, however, enabled us to follow up the children's records regardless of place of residence. The excess of leukaemia among Seascale children first supported from the analysis of geographical areas is confirmed. There were five deaths from leukaemia identified to 30 June 1986 compared with 0.53 expected at national rates--a ratio of 9.36 (95% confidence interval 3.04 to 21.84). One of these deaths occurred after the child had left Seascale. There were four deaths from other cancers compared with 1.06 expected--a ratio of 3.76 (95% CI 1.02 to 9.63). In addition, three further cases of cancer, apart from the deaths, were reported compared with 1.19 expected since 1971--a ratio of 2.53 (95% CI 0.52 to 7.40). For other causes of death, including stillbirths and infant mortality, there was a reported deficit compared with national rates, some of which at least was to be expected on the basis of the social class composition of the population of Seascale. In view of the importance of this cohort of births continued follow up is planned, with the possibility of extending it to include births since 1983, and the methods available for this type of study will be examined further.

摘要

对1950年至1983年间居住在锡斯凯尔公民教区的母亲所生的1068名儿童的记录进行了研究。这些家庭中有很大程度的流动性,近一半的儿童后来没有进入当地的主要学校就读。然而,使用国家医疗服务中央登记册使我们能够追踪这些儿童的记录,而不论其居住地点。通过对地理区域的分析首次得到支持的锡斯凯尔儿童白血病发病率过高的情况得到了证实。到1986年6月30日,已确定有5例白血病死亡病例,而按全国发病率预期应为0.53例,比例为9.36(95%置信区间为3.04至21.84)。其中1例死亡发生在孩子离开锡斯凯尔之后。有4例死于其他癌症,而预期应为1.06例,比例为3.76(95%置信区间为1.02至9.63)。此外,自1971年以来,除了死亡病例外,还报告了另外3例癌症病例,而预期应为1.19例,比例为2.53(95%置信区间为0.52至7.40)。对于包括死产和婴儿死亡率在内的其他死因,报告的病例数低于全国发病率,其中至少部分情况是根据锡斯凯尔人口的社会阶层构成可以预期的。鉴于这一出生队列的重要性,计划继续进行随访,并有可能将其扩大到包括1983年以后的出生情况,同时将进一步研究适用于这类研究的方法。

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